Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerLiberty 82%
- Projected scoreLiberty 32, New Mexico State 17
- Model spreadLiberty −14.5 total 49
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Liberty Flames or New Mexico State Aggies: the bandwagon
Axle 82–18Market 87–13
Liberty Flames at New Mexico State Aggies win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | LIB | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LIB– | NMSU– |
| Average win probability | LIB– | NMSU– |
| Longest scoring run | LIB– | NMSU– |
| Time leading | LIB– | NMSU– |
Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NMSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 18% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:41 PM ET | 19% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 21% | −4 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 25% | — |
- Ratings
- NMSU 1324 · LIB 1587
- Home spread
- +14.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Liberty vs New Mexico State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Flames at 87%, Polymarket at 88% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 82%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LIB | NMSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 87% | 13% | ||
| Polymarket | 88% | 13% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 82% | 18% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Flames a 14.5-point favorite, with a 82% chance to win. The model total is 49. Ratings: Aggies 1324 (125th of 138), Flames 1587 (37th). The Aggies have won 2 of their last 5; the Flames 5 of their last 5. The two have met 5 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Aggies won 1, the Flames 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Liberty Flames
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Florida International Panthers | W 49–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kennesaw State Owls | W 34–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sam Houston Bearkats | W 35–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Delaware Blue Hens | W 30–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | W 34–17 | – | – | matchup |
New Mexico State Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks | L 0–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sam Houston Bearkats | W 30–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida International Panthers | L 3–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | W 34–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico Lobos | L 18–42 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames | 27–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| Liberty Flames at New Mexico State Aggies | 30–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames | 35–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames | 17–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames | 49–14 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Liberty Flames: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New Mexico State Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Flames– 1st · W7
- Flames rating1587 37th of 138, 7 games
- Aggies– 5th · L1
- Aggies rating1324 125th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W7
No stances yet today on $LIB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Liberty Flames bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $NMSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico State Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Liberty Flames at New Mexico State Aggies
Sign in to post a take on $LIBNMSU261108: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Liberty 82% to win. Projected score Liberty 32, New Mexico State 17; spread Liberty −14.5, total 49. Kalshi 87%, Polymarket 88% for Liberty. Liberty Flames at New Mexico State Aggies, Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM ET.