Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerTCU 68%
- Projected scoreTCU 27, Kansas State 20
- Model spreadTCU −7 total 46.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Kansas State Wildcats or TCU Horned Frogs: the bandwagon
Axle 32–68Market 42–58
Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | KSU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | KSU– | TCU– |
| Average win probability | KSU– | TCU– |
| Longest scoring run | KSU– | TCU– |
| Time leading | KSU– | TCU– |
Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | TCU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:59 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:16 PM ET | 68% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 66% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 65% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 62% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- TCU 1557 · KSU 1508
- Home spread
- −7
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Kansas State vs TCU odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Horned Frogs at 73%, Polymarket at 42% (31 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 68%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | KSU | TCU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 27% | 73% | ||
| Polymarket | 58% | 42% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 32% | 68% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Horned Frogs a 7-point favorite at home, with a 68% chance to win. The model total is 46.5. Ratings: Horned Frogs 1557 (51st of 138), Wildcats 1508 (66th). The Horned Frogs have won 2 of their last 5; the Wildcats 1 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Horned Frogs won 1, the Wildcats 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Kansas State Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Colorado Buffaloes | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona State Sun Devils | L 17–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas Jayhawks | W 35–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Cougars | L 16–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cincinnati Bearcats | L 26–31 | – | – | matchup |
TCU Horned Frogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kansas Jayhawks | W 22–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs West Virginia Mountaineers | L 20–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Baylor Bears | W 17–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs BYU Cougars | L 10–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UCF Knights | L 13–21 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas State Wildcats | 28–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas State Wildcats | 3–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs | 31–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs | 28–38 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Kansas State Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
TCU Horned Frogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wildcats– 14th · L2
- Wildcats rating1508 66th of 138, 7 games
- Horned Frogs– 13th · W1
- Horned Frogs rating1557 51st of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 14th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $KSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kansas State Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 13th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $TCU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the TCU Horned Frogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs
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Model: TCU 68% to win. Projected score TCU 27, Kansas State 20; spread TCU −7, total 46.5. Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 42% for TCU. Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs, Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 AM ET.