App State Mountaineers vs South Alabama Jaguars prediction, odds and picks, November 27, 2026
App State at South Alabama: Bandwagon's model makes South Alabama a 64% favorite (South Alabama −6).
App State Mountaineers vs South Alabama Jaguars odds and win probability
Axle gives South Alabama a 64% chance to win, by about 6 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has South Alabama
All CFB ratings| APP | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1375 110th of 138 | 1403 105th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | USA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 64% | — |
App State Mountaineers vs South Alabama Jaguars prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Jaguars a 6-point favorite at home, with a 64% chance to win. The model total is 56. Ratings: Jaguars 1403 (105th of 138), Mountaineers 1375 (110th). The Jaguars have won 2 of their last 5; the Mountaineers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Jaguars won 1, the Mountaineers 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
App State Mountaineers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Georgia State Panthers | L 23–39 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia Southern Eagles | L 3–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs James Madison Dukes | W 34–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | W 35–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Old Dominion Monarchs | L 3–10 | – | – | matchup |
South Alabama Jaguars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 26–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 20–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marshall Thundering Herd | L 13–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arkansas State Red Wolves | W 56–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UL Monroe Warhawks | W 52–35 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama Jaguars at App State Mountaineers | 48–14 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
App State Mountaineers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
South Alabama Jaguars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mountaineers– Sun Belt - East, 4th · L2
- Mountaineers rating1375 110th of 138, 8 games
- Jaguars– Sun Belt - West, 3rd · L3
- Jaguars rating1403 105th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - East · 4th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $APP: the share of the crowd ▲ on the App State Mountaineers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 3rd · streak L3
No stances yet today on $USA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the South Alabama Jaguars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on App State Mountaineers at South Alabama Jaguars
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: South Alabama 64% to win. Projected score South Alabama 31, App State 25; spread South Alabama −6, total 56. App State Mountaineers at South Alabama Jaguars, Fri, Nov 27, 3:00 PM ET.