National Hockey League odds Thursday, November 5
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's National Hockey League predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
National Hockey League odds Thursday, November 5
11 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackhawks at Lightning | Lightning 74% | Lightning −1.5 | 6.5 | +280 / −280 | home 73% → 74% | Matchup | |
| Blues at Devils | Devils 55% | Devils −0.5 | 6.5 | +120 / −120 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bruins at Penguins | Bruins 53% | PK | 6.5 | −113 / +113 | no move | Matchup | |
| Flyers at Rangers | Rangers 56% | Rangers −0.5 | 6.5 | +126 / −126 | no move | Matchup | |
| Golden Knights at Red Wings | Golden Knights 54% | PK | 6.5 | −120 / +120 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hurricanes at Islanders | Hurricanes 63% | Hurricanes −0.5 | 6 | −171 / +171 | no move | Matchup | |
| Mammoth at Canadiens | Canadiens 57% | Canadiens −0.5 | 6.5 | +134 / −134 | no move | Matchup | |
| Stars at Blue Jackets | Stars 53% | PK | 6 | −113 / +113 | no move | Matchup | |
| Canucks at Jets | Jets 64% | Jets −1 | 6.5 | +178 / −178 | no move | Matchup | |
| Ducks at Oilers | Oilers 62% | Oilers −0.5 | 7 | +162 / −162 | no move | Matchup | |
| Predators at Avalanche | Avalanche 65% | Avalanche −1 | 6.5 | +187 / −187 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 11 of 11
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 11 of 11
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 11
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 11
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries in the data but not used for 10 · unavailable for 1 (The injury list is older than three days)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · newest read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 11
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 11 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
National Hockey League team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Hurricanes | 1602 | 17 |
| 2 | Colorado Avalanche | 1566 | 16 |
| 3 | Minnesota Wild | 1557 | 17 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1555 | 14 |
| 5 | Dallas Stars | 1542 | 15 |
| 6 | Montreal Canadiens | 1541 | 15 |
| 7 | Edmonton Oilers | 1535 | 16 |
| 8 | Vegas Golden Knights | 1535 | 17 |
| 9 | Boston Bruins | 1534 | 16 |
| 10 | Buffalo Sabres | 1534 | 14 |
| 11 | Washington Capitals | 1521 | 14 |
| 12 | Ottawa Senators | 1520 | 16 |
Top 12 of 32; every team's rating is on its page.
National Hockey League model record
Over 4356 National Hockey League games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 57% of the time, Brier score 0.2416, mean spread error 2.138 points, mean total error 1.864. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for National Hockey League games Thursday, November 5: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.