Bundesliga odds Saturday, November 7
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's Bundesliga predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
Bundesliga odds Saturday, November 7
5 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg at RB Leipzig | RB Leipzig 61%draw 23% | RB Leipzig −1 | 4 | +520 / +337 / −156 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bayern Munich at Mainz | Bayern Munich 71%draw 18% | Bayern Munich −1.5 | 4 | −242 / +450 / +806 | no move | Matchup | |
| SV Elversberg at Borussia Dortmund | Borussia Dortmund 69%draw 19% | Borussia Dortmund −1.5 | 3 | +751 / +428 / −226 | no move | Matchup | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt at SC Paderborn 07 | SC Paderborn 07 40%draw 29% | PK | 3 | +226 / +246 / +147 | no move | Matchup | |
| Werder Bremen at VfB Stuttgart | VfB Stuttgart 60%draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart −1 | 3.5 | +493 / +327 / −148 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 5 of 5
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 5 of 5
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 5
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 5
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 5 (No injury list read before this game)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 5
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC - Weather in the data but not used for 5
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Bundesliga team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 1703 | 8 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 1597 | 8 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 1525 | 8 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 1513 | 8 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1506 | 8 |
| 6 | SC Freiburg | 1471 | 8 |
| 7 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1442 | 8 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 1425 | 8 |
| 9 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1423 | 8 |
| 10 | FC Augsburg | 1413 | 8 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen | 1410 | 8 |
| 12 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 1406 | 8 |
Top 12 of 18; every team's rating is on its page.
Bundesliga model record
Over 620 Bundesliga games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 50% of the time, Brier score 0.2153, mean spread error 1.43 points, mean total error 1.44. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for Bundesliga games Saturday, November 7: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.