Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Sabres at Lightning: Bandwagon's model makes the Lightning a 58% favorite (Lightning −0.5).
Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Lightning a 58% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Lightning win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 58%.
The largest gap is 16 points: Polymarket has the Lightning at 74%, Axle at 58%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
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Why Axle has the Lightning
All NHL ratings| BUF | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1528 10th of 32 | 1557 3rd of 32 |
| Record | 8-6-3 | 11-4-2 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | TB win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:02 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:12 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 58% | — |
Sabres vs Lightning odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Lightning at 74%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 58%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | BUF | TB | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 26% | 74% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 42% | 58% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lightning a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 58% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Lightning 1557 (3rd of 32), Sabres 1528 (10th). The Lightning are 11-4-2 in the Atlantic Division; the Sabres are 8-6-3 in the Atlantic Division. The Lightning have won 3 of their last 5; the Sabres 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lightning won 2, the Sabres 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Buffalo Sabres
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Vegas Golden Knights | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Blue Jackets | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ottawa Senators | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Kings | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Anaheim Ducks | W 7–6 | – | – | matchup |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Winnipeg Jets | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Wild | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Blackhawks | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Detroit Red Wings | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville Predators | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres | 7–8 | – | – | matchup | |
| Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning | 6–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning | 4–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres | 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Buffalo Sabres: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Tampa Bay Lightning: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Sabres8-6-3 Atlantic Division, 6th · L1
- Sabres rating1528 10th of 32, 17 games
- Lightning11-4-2 Atlantic Division, 3rd · L1
- Lightning rating1557 3rd of 32, 17 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Buffalo Sabres 8-6-3
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $SABRES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Buffalo Sabres bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Tampa Bay Lightning 11-4-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 3rd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $LIGHTNING: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tampa Bay Lightning bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Lightning 58% to win. Projected score Lightning 3.5, Sabres 3.0; spread Lightning −0.5, total 6.5. Polymarket 74% for the Lightning. Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning, Sun, Nov 22, 5:00 PM ET.