Washington Huskies vs Michigan State Spartans prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerWashington 79%
- Projected scoreWashington 31, Michigan State 18
- Model spreadWashington −12.5 total 48.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Washington Huskies or Michigan State Spartans: the bandwagon
Axle 79–21Market 66–34
Washington Huskies at Michigan State Spartans win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Washington Huskies vs Michigan State Spartans live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Washington Huskies vs Michigan State Spartans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | WASH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WASH– | MSU– |
| Average win probability | WASH– | MSU– |
| Longest scoring run | WASH– | MSU– |
| Time leading | WASH– | MSU– |
Washington Huskies vs Michigan State Spartans model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 21% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 25% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 27% | −1 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 28% | — |
- Ratings
- MSU 1384 · WASH 1621
- Home spread
- +12.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET · 2026-11-05 03:26 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread +13 → +12.5
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Washington vs Michigan State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Huskies at 71%, Polymarket at 61% (10 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 79%.
Prices read: Kalshi (not de-vigged); Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | WASH | MSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 71% | 29% | · not de-vigged | |
| Polymarket | 61% | 39% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 79% | 21% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Washington Huskies vs Michigan State Spartans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Huskies a 12.5-point favorite, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 48.5. Ratings: Spartans 1384 (110th of 138), Huskies 1621 (28th). The Spartans have won 0 of their last 5; the Huskies 2 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Spartans won 0, the Huskies 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Washington Huskies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Nebraska Cornhuskers | W 17–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Purdue Boilermakers | W 38–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iowa Hawkeyes | L 24–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| at USC Trojans | L 21–25 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Golden Gophers | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup |
Michigan State Spartans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UCLA Bruins | L 10–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northwestern Wildcats | L 21–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Illinois Fighting Illini | L 37–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wisconsin Badgers | L 3–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | L 13–31 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Huskies at Michigan State Spartans | 41–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| Michigan State Spartans at Washington Huskies | 28–39 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Washington Huskies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Michigan State Spartans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Huskies– 11th · W2
- Huskies rating1621 28th of 138, 7 games
- Spartans– 18th · L6
- Spartans rating1384 110th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 11th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $WASH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Huskies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 18th · streak L6
No stances yet today on $MSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Michigan State Spartans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Washington Huskies at Michigan State Spartans
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Model: Washington 79% to win. Projected score Washington 31, Michigan State 18; spread Washington −12.5, total 48.5. Kalshi 71%, Polymarket 61% for Washington. Washington Huskies at Michigan State Spartans, Sat, Nov 14, 4:15 PM ET.