Vanderbilt Commodores vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerMississippi State 56%
- Projected scoreMississippi State 28, Vanderbilt 26
- Model spreadMississippi State −2.5 total 54.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Vanderbilt Commodores or Mississippi State Bulldogs: the bandwagon
Axle 44–56Market 42–58
Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Mississippi State Bulldogs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Mississippi State Bulldogs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | VAN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN– | MSST– |
| Average win probability | VAN– | MSST– |
| Longest scoring run | VAN– | MSST– |
| Time leading | VAN– | MSST– |
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Mississippi State Bulldogs model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MSST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:56 PM ET | 56% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 58% | −6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 64% | — |
- Ratings
- MSST 1474 · VAN 1493
- Home spread
- −2.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Bulldogs at 58%, Polymarket at 59% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 56%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | VAN | MSST | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 42% | 58% | ||
| Polymarket | 41% | 59% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 44% | 56% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulldogs a 2.5-point favorite at home, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 54.5. Ratings: Bulldogs 1474 (77th of 138), Commodores 1493 (71st). The Bulldogs have won 1 of their last 5; the Commodores 0 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Vanderbilt Commodores
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Kentucky Wildcats | L 17–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arkansas Razorbacks | L 21–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ole Miss Rebels | L 17–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia Bulldogs | L 14–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Auburn Tigers | L 15–21 | – | – | matchup |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Texas Longhorns | L 3–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma Sooners | L 15–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LSU Tigers | L 0–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alabama Crimson Tide | L 23–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Missouri Tigers | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Vanderbilt Commodores: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Mississippi State Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Commodores– 16th · L5
- Commodores rating1493 71st of 138, 7 games
- Bulldogs– 13th · L4
- Bulldogs rating1474 77th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 16th · streak L5
No stances yet today on $VAN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vanderbilt Commodores bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 13th · streak L4
No stances yet today on $MSST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mississippi State Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Mississippi State 56% to win. Projected score Mississippi State 28, Vanderbilt 26; spread Mississippi State −2.5, total 54.5. Kalshi 58%, Polymarket 59% for Mississippi State. Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs, Sat, Nov 7, 4:15 PM ET.