Texas is up 7-0 with 5:10 left in the first, and the model has the Longhorns at 89 percent. Mississippi State has not yet put a number on the board, so the early read favours the home side.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreMississippi State 3, Texas 31 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerTexas 89%
- Pregame Projected scoreTexas 37, Mississippi State 16
- Model spreadTexas −21 total 53.5
- Margin28 projected 21
- Total34 projected 53.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Mississippi State Bulldogs or Texas Longhorns: the bandwagon
Axle 11–89Market 9–91
FinalPregame: TEX 89%Baseline: TEX 96.2% (+6.9)Big swing: 4.9 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TEX | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for TEX over the last 5:00
Big swing4.9 ptstoward TEX at 0:39 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineTEX 96.2%game average, +6.9 points from the pregame 89.3%
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MSST | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | MSST187 | TEX280 |
| First downs | MSST12 | TEX13 |
| 3rd down | MSST6/18 | TEX6/14 |
| 4th down | MSST0/1 | TEX0/0 |
| Turnovers | MSST1 | TEX1 |
| Penalties-yards | MSST6-50 | TEX5-42 |
| Time of possession | MSST32:28 | TEX27:32 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MSST | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MSST3 | TEX31 |
| Average win probability | MSST4% | TEX96% |
| Longest scoring run | MSST+3 | TEX+23 |
| Time leading | MSST0:00 | TEX57:59 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET
Bulldogs11%
Win chanceLonghorns89%
SpreadTEX −21closing model spread
Total53.5
Moneyline+833away / −833homeaway / home
Line movementTEX win chance, 28 stored lines
No move
95%84%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | TEX win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 89% | — |
- Ratings
- TEX 1728 · MSST 1485
- Home spread
- −21
- Stored
- Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET · 2026-11-01 02:51 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Mississippi State Bulldogs 3, Texas Longhorns 31. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
BulldogsLonghorns
Neutrals only–
BulldogsLonghorns
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Longhorns–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Mississippi State vs Texas odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Longhorns at 91% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 91% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 89% when last read, .
| Source | MSST | TEX | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 9% | 91% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 9% | 91% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 11% | 89% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, TEX: +1Polymarket minus model, TEX: +1
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Longhorns a 21-point favorite at home, with a 89% chance to win. The model total is 53.5. Ratings: Longhorns 1739 (8th of 138), Bulldogs 1474 (77th). The Longhorns have won 3 of their last 5; the Bulldogs 1 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Longhorns won 2, the Bulldogs 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Mississippi State Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Texas Longhorns | L 3–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma Sooners | L 15–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LSU Tigers | L 0–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alabama Crimson Tide | L 23–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Missouri Tigers | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup |
Texas Longhorns
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Mississippi State Bulldogs | W 31–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ole Miss Rebels | W 34–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Gators | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma Sooners | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tennessee Volunteers | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Longhorns at Mississippi State Bulldogs | 45–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns | 13–35 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Mississippi State Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Texas Longhorns: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulldogs– 13th · L4
- Bulldogs rating1474 77th of 138, 8 games
- Longhorns– 5th · W2
- Longhorns rating1739 8th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 13th · streak L4
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MSST
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MSST
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MSST
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MSST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mississippi State Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TEXAS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $TEXAS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $TEXAS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $TEXAS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas Longhorns bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns
Sign in to post a take on $MSSTTEXAS261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Mississippi State 3, Texas 31. Bandwagon's model had the Texas at 89% and projected Texas 37, Mississippi State 16; spread Texas −21, total 53.5. Last read: Kalshi 91%, Polymarket 91% for Texas.