Troy Trojans vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction, odds and picks, November 28, 2026
Troy at Arkansas State: Bandwagon's model makes Arkansas State a 64% favorite (Arkansas State −6).
Troy Trojans vs Arkansas State Red Wolves odds and win probability
Axle gives Arkansas State a 64% chance to win, by about 6 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Arkansas State
All CFB ratings| TROY | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1396 106th of 138 | 1424 92nd of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ARST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 64% | — |
Troy Trojans vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Red Wolves a 6-point favorite at home, with a 64% chance to win. The model total is 51.5. Ratings: Red Wolves 1424 (92nd of 138), Trojans 1396 (106th). The Red Wolves have won 2 of their last 5; the Trojans 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Red Wolves won 2, the Trojans 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Troy Trojans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 17–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| at James Madison Dukes | W 24–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UL Monroe Warhawks | L 14–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 6–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | W 55–34 | – | – | matchup |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UL Monroe Warhawks | L 17–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia State Panthers | W 38–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Southern Miss Golden Eagles | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Alabama Jaguars | L 49–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 20–23 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves at Troy Trojans | 23–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves | 31–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves at Troy Trojans | 3–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves | 48–19 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Troy Trojans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Arkansas State Red Wolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Trojans– Sun Belt - West, 5th · L1
- Trojans rating1396 106th of 138, 8 games
- Red Wolves– Sun Belt - West, 4th · L1
- Red Wolves rating1424 92nd of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 5th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $TROY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Troy Trojans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ARST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas State Red Wolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Arkansas State 64% to win. Projected score Arkansas State 29, Troy 23; spread Arkansas State −6, total 51.5. Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves, Sat, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ET.