Troy Trojans vs James Madison Dukes: final score and how the prediction did, October 29, 2026
- Final scoreTroy 24, James Madison 21 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerJames Madison 94%
- Pregame Projected scoreJames Madison 39, Troy 13
- Model spreadJames Madison −26.5 total 52
- Margin3 projected 26.5
- Total45 projected 52
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Troy Trojans or James Madison Dukes: the bandwagon
Axle 6–94Market 11–89
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 0 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 24 |
| JMU | 14 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
Troy Trojans at James Madison Dukes win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Troy Trojans vs James Madison Dukes live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | TROY | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | TROY349 | JMU408 |
| First downs | TROY17 | JMU17 |
| 3rd down | TROY4/15 | JMU7/18 |
| 4th down | TROY0/3 | JMU1/3 |
| Turnovers | TROY1 | JMU5 |
| Penalties-yards | TROY7-44 | JMU10-71 |
| Time of possession | TROY32:35 | JMU27:25 |
Troy Trojans vs James Madison Dukes team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | TROY | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TROY24 | JMU21 |
| Average win probability | TROY12% | JMU88% |
| Longest scoring run | TROY+17 | JMU+14 |
| Time leading | TROY0:00 | JMU32:32 |
Troy Trojans vs James Madison Dukes model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | JMU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 94% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 95% | — |
- Ratings
- JMU 1718 · TROY 1397
- Home spread
- −26.5
- Stored
- Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET · 2026-10-30 02:26 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread −29.5 → −26.5, total 51.5 → 52, home 95% → 94%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Troy Trojans 24, James Madison Dukes 21. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 29, 10:38 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Troy vs James Madison odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Dukes at 89% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 89% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 95% when last read, .
| Source | TROY | JMU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 11% | 89% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 12% | 89% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 6% | 94% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Troy Trojans vs James Madison Dukes prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Dukes a 26.5-point favorite at home, with a 94% chance to win. The model total is 52. Ratings: Dukes 1687 (14th of 138), Trojans 1428 (91st). The Dukes have won 3 of their last 5; the Trojans 2 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Dukes won 2, the Trojans 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Troy Trojans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at James Madison Dukes | W 24–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UL Monroe Warhawks | L 14–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 6–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | W 55–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah State Aggies | L 10–21 | – | – | matchup |
James Madison Dukes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Troy Trojans | L 21–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at App State Mountaineers | L 31–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia State Panthers | W 49–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia Southern Eagles | W 27–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marshall Thundering Herd | W 45–17 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Trojans at James Madison Dukes | 14–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| James Madison Dukes at Troy Trojans | 16–14 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Troy Trojans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
James Madison Dukes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Trojans– Sun Belt - West, 5th · W1
- Trojans rating1428 91st of 138, 7 games
- Dukes– Sun Belt - East, 1st · L2
- Dukes rating1687 14th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $TROY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Troy Trojans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - East · 1st · streak L2
No stances yet today on $JMU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the James Madison Dukes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Troy Trojans at James Madison Dukes
Sign in to post a take on $TROYJMU261029: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Final: Troy 24, James Madison 21. Bandwagon's model had the James Madison at 94% and projected James Madison 39, Troy 13; spread James Madison −26.5, total 52. Last read: Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 89% for James Madison.