Texas State Bobcats vs Oregon State Beavers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerTexas State 55%
- Projected scoreTexas State 32, Oregon State 30
- Model spreadTexas State −2 total 61.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Texas State Bobcats or Oregon State Beavers: the bandwagon
Axle 55–45Market 32–68
Texas State Bobcats at Oregon State Beavers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Texas State Bobcats vs Oregon State Beavers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Texas State Bobcats vs Oregon State Beavers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | TXST | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TXST– | ORST– |
| Average win probability | TXST– | ORST– |
| Longest scoring run | TXST– | ORST– |
| Time leading | TXST– | ORST– |
Texas State Bobcats vs Oregon State Beavers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ORST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:39 AM ET | 45% | −4 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 49% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 48% | −7 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 55% | — |
- Ratings
- ORST 1457 · TXST 1539
- Home spread
- +2
- Stored
- Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET · 2026-11-05 10:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Texas State vs Oregon State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Bobcats at 32%, Polymarket at 31% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 55%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TXST | ORST | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 32% | 68% | ||
| Polymarket | 31% | 69% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 55% | 45% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Texas State Bobcats vs Oregon State Beavers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bobcats a 2-point favorite, with a 55% chance to win. The model total is 61.5. Ratings: Beavers 1457 (83rd of 138), Bobcats 1539 (58th). The Beavers have won 4 of their last 5; the Bobcats 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Texas State Bobcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Boise State Broncos | L 45–46 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah State Aggies | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado State Rams | W 66–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Diego State Aztecs | L 29–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Texas Mean Green | W 49–35 | – | – | matchup |
Oregon State Beavers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Fresno State Bulldogs | L 22–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington State Cougars | W 48–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego State Aztecs | W 66–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado State Rams | W 56–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTEP Miners | W 33–7 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Texas State Bobcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Oregon State Beavers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bobcats– 4th · L1
- Bobcats rating1539 58th of 138, 7 games
- Beavers– 2nd · L1
- Beavers rating1457 83rd of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $TXST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas State Bobcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ORST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oregon State Beavers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Texas State Bobcats at Oregon State Beavers
Sign in to post a take on $TXSTORST261108: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Texas State 55% to win. Projected score Texas State 32, Oregon State 30; spread Texas State −2, total 61.5. Kalshi 32%, Polymarket 31% for Texas State. Texas State Bobcats at Oregon State Beavers, Sat, Nov 7, 10:30 PM ET.