Stanford Cardinal vs California Golden Bears prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Stanford at California: Bandwagon's model has this one even.
Stanford Cardinal vs California Golden Bears model odds and win probability
Axle has this one even: Stanford 50%, California 50%.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that California win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 50%.
The largest gap is 9 points: Polymarket has California at 59%, Axle at 50%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
How the two sides compare
All CFB ratings| STAN | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1415 99th of 138 | 1360 117th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | CAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | — |
Stanford vs California odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Golden Bears at 50%, Polymarket at 59% (9 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 50%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | STAN | CAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% | 50% | ||
| Polymarket | 41% | 59% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 50% | 50% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Stanford Cardinal vs California Golden Bears prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 50% for the Golden Bears. The model total is 55. Ratings: Golden Bears 1360 (117th of 138), Cardinal 1415 (99th). The Golden Bears have won 1 of their last 5; the Cardinal 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Golden Bears won 3, the Cardinal 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Stanford Cardinal
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Louisville Cardinals | L 24–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs NC State Wolfpack | W 31–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 7–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wake Forest Demon Deacons | L 3–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | W 34–27 | – | – | matchup |
California Golden Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at NC State Wolfpack | L 10–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SMU Mustangs | L 20–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons | L 7–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Virginia Tech Hokies | W 25–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UNLV Rebels | L 31–39 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal | 10–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Stanford Cardinal at California Golden Bears | 21–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal | 27–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| Stanford Cardinal at California Golden Bears | 20–27 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Stanford Cardinal: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
California Golden Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cardinal– 11th · L1
- Cardinal rating1415 99th of 138, 8 games
- Golden Bears– 16th · L3
- Golden Bears rating1360 117th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 11th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $STAN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Stanford Cardinal bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 16th · streak L3
No stances yet today on $CAL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the California Golden Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Stanford Cardinal at California Golden Bears
Sign in to post a take on $STANCAL261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: even. Projected score California 27, Stanford 28; spread even, total 55. Kalshi 50%, Polymarket 59% for California. Stanford Cardinal at California Golden Bears, Sat, Nov 21, 7:30 PM ET.