San José State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerAir Force 82%
- Projected scoreAir Force 32, San José State 17
- Model spreadAir Force −14.5 total 49.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
San José State Spartans or Air Force Falcons: the bandwagon
Axle 18–82Market 25–75
San José State Spartans at Air Force Falcons win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
San José State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
San José State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJSU– | AF– |
| Average win probability | SJSU– | AF– |
| Longest scoring run | SJSU– | AF– |
| Time leading | SJSU– | AF– |
San José State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | AF win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:51 PM ET | 82% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 80% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 77% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 81% | — |
- Ratings
- AF 1508 · SJSU 1353
- Home spread
- −14.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
San José State vs Air Force odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Falcons at 79%, Polymarket at 72% (7 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 82%.
Prices read: Kalshi (not de-vigged); Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SJSU | AF | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 21% | 79% | · not de-vigged | |
| Polymarket | 28% | 72% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 18% | 82% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
San José State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Falcons a 14.5-point favorite at home, with a 82% chance to win. The model total is 49.5. Ratings: Falcons 1508 (67th of 138), Spartans 1353 (120th). The Falcons have won 4 of their last 5; the Spartans 2 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Falcons won 2, the Spartans 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
San José State Spartans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New Mexico Lobos | L 16–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | L 13–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTEP Miners | W 24–11 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wyoming Cowboys | L 13–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | W 20–16 | – | – | matchup |
Air Force Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UConn Huskies | W 35–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wyoming Cowboys | L 14–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UNLV Rebels | W 41–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northern Illinois Huskies | W 28–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Navy Midshipmen | W 14–9 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force Falcons at San José State Spartans | 26–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| San José State Spartans at Air Force Falcons | 17–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| Air Force Falcons at San José State Spartans | 45–20 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
San José State Spartans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Air Force Falcons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Spartans– 6th · L2
- Spartans rating1353 120th of 138, 8 games
- Falcons– 3rd · W1
- Falcons rating1508 67th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $SJSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San José State Spartans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $AF: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Air Force Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on San José State Spartans at Air Force Falcons
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Model: Air Force 82% to win. Projected score Air Force 32, San José State 17; spread Air Force −14.5, total 49.5. Kalshi 79%, Polymarket 72% for Air Force. San José State Spartans at Air Force Falcons, Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ET.