Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerNorth Texas 95%
- Projected scoreNorth Texas 44, Rice 16
- Model spreadNorth Texas −28.5 total 60.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Rice Owls or North Texas Mean Green: the bandwagon
Axle 5–95Market 12–88
Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | RICE | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Score | RICE– | UNT– |
| Average win probability | RICE– | UNT– |
| Longest scoring run | RICE– | UNT– |
| Time leading | RICE– | UNT– |
Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | UNT win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 95% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 94% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 96% | — |
- Ratings
- UNT 1619 · RICE 1270
- Home spread
- −28.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · The injury list is older than three daysplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Rice vs North Texas odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Mean Green at 88%, Polymarket at 88%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 95%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | RICE | UNT | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 12% | 88% | ||
| Polymarket | 12% | 88% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 5% | 95% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mean Green a 28.5-point favorite at home, with a 95% chance to win. The model total is 60.5. Ratings: Mean Green 1619 (30th of 138), Owls 1270 (131st). The Mean Green have won 4 of their last 5; the Owls 0 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Mean Green won 2, the Owls 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Rice Owls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Florida Atlantic Owls | L 49–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane | L 17–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| at East Carolina Pirates | L 12–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UTSA Roadrunners | L 14–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Fresno State Bulldogs | L 24–38 | – | – | matchup |
North Texas Mean Green
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Florida Atlantic Owls | W 48–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Navy Midshipmen | W 49–39 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte 49ers | W 50–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | W 45–44 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas State Bobcats | L 35–49 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas Mean Green at Rice Owls | 56–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green | 17–21 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Rice Owls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
North Texas Mean Green: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Owls– 14th · L7
- Owls rating1270 131st of 138, 7 games
- Mean Green– 3rd · W5
- Mean Green rating1619 30th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 14th · streak L7
No stances yet today on $RICE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Rice Owls bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W5
No stances yet today on $UNT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Texas Mean Green bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green
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Model: North Texas 95% to win. Projected score North Texas 44, Rice 16; spread North Texas −28.5, total 60.5. Kalshi 88%, Polymarket 88% for North Texas. Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green, Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET.