Northwestern Wildcats vs Minnesota Golden Gophers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Northwestern at Minnesota: Bandwagon's model has this one even.
Northwestern Wildcats vs Minnesota Golden Gophers model odds and win probability
Axle has this one even: Northwestern 51%, Minnesota 49%.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Minnesota win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 49%.
The largest gap is 15 points: Axle has Minnesota at 49%, Polymarket at 34%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
How the two sides compare
All CFB ratings| NU | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1559 50th of 138 | 1501 69th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MINN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:52 PM ET | 49% | +5 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 44% | −5 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | — |
Northwestern vs Minnesota odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Wildcats at 58%, Polymarket at 66% (8 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 51%.
Prices read: Kalshi (not de-vigged); Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | NU | MINN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 58% | 42% | · not de-vigged | |
| Polymarket | 66% | 34% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 51% | 49% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Northwestern Wildcats vs Minnesota Golden Gophers prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 49% for the Golden Gophers. The model total is 49.5. Ratings: Golden Gophers 1501 (69th of 138), Wildcats 1559 (50th). The Golden Gophers have won 2 of their last 5; the Wildcats 3 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Golden Gophers won 1, the Wildcats 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Northwestern Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Iowa Hawkeyes | L 10–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oregon Ducks | L 26–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights | W 42–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan State Spartans | W 24–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ball State Cardinals | W 45–14 | – | – | matchup |
Minnesota Golden Gophers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UCLA Bruins | L 20–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indiana Hoosiers | L 16–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iowa Hawkeyes | W 13–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Purdue Boilermakers | L 13–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Michigan Wolverines | W 20–14 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats | 35–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats | 34–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers | 3–31 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Northwestern Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Minnesota Golden Gophers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wildcats– 9th · L2
- Wildcats rating1559 50th of 138, 8 games
- Golden Gophers– 10th · L2
- Golden Gophers rating1501 69th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 9th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $NU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Northwestern Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $MINN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota Golden Gophers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Sign in to post a take on $NUMINN261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: even. Projected score Minnesota 25, Northwestern 25; spread even, total 49.5. Kalshi 58%, Polymarket 66% for Northwestern. Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers, Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 PM ET.