Iowa Hawkeyes vs Northwestern Wildcats prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerIowa 57%
- Projected scoreIowa 26, Northwestern 23
- Model spreadIowa −3 total 49
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Iowa Hawkeyes or Northwestern Wildcats: the bandwagon
Axle 57–43Market 44–56
Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Northwestern Wildcats live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Northwestern Wildcats team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | IOWA | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | IOWA– | NU– |
| Average win probability | IOWA– | NU– |
| Longest scoring run | IOWA– | NU– |
| Time leading | IOWA– | NU– |
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Northwestern Wildcats model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:01 PM ET | 43% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 46% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 50% | −8 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 58% | — |
- Ratings
- NU 1588 · IOWA 1684
- Home spread
- +3
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Iowa vs Northwestern odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Hawkeyes at 45%, Polymarket at 44% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 57%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | IOWA | NU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 45% | 56% | ||
| Polymarket | 44% | 56% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 57% | 43% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Northwestern Wildcats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hawkeyes a 3-point favorite, with a 57% chance to win. The model total is 49. Ratings: Wildcats 1588 (36th of 138), Hawkeyes 1684 (16th). The Wildcats have won 4 of their last 5; the Hawkeyes 3 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Wildcats won 0, the Hawkeyes 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Iowa Hawkeyes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Wisconsin Badgers | W 30–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Golden Gophers | L 10–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Huskies | W 41–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio State Buckeyes | L 14–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | W 20–19 | – | – | matchup |
Northwestern Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Oregon Ducks | L 26–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights | W 42–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan State Spartans | W 24–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ball State Cardinals | W 45–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Penn State Nittany Lions | W 34–13 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes | 14–40 | – | – | matchup | |
| Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats | 10–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes | 13–33 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Iowa Hawkeyes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Northwestern Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hawkeyes– 5th · W1
- Hawkeyes rating1684 16th of 138, 7 games
- Wildcats– 6th · L1
- Wildcats rating1588 36th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $IOWA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Iowa Hawkeyes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $NU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Northwestern Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Iowa 57% to win. Projected score Iowa 26, Northwestern 23; spread Iowa −3, total 49. Kalshi 45%, Polymarket 44% for Iowa. Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats, Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET.