New Mexico State Aggies vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders prediction, odds and picks, November 28, 2026
New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee: Bandwagon's model makes Middle Tennessee a 68% favorite (Middle Tennessee −7.5).
New Mexico State Aggies vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders odds and win probability
Axle gives Middle Tennessee a 68% chance to win, by about 8 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Middle Tennessee
All CFB ratings| NMSU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1309 125th of 138 | 1363 114th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MTSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 68% | — |
New Mexico State Aggies vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Blue Raiders a 7.5-point favorite at home, with a 68% chance to win. The model total is 52. Ratings: Blue Raiders 1363 (114th of 138), Aggies 1309 (125th). The Blue Raiders have won 3 of their last 5; the Aggies 2 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Blue Raiders won 1, the Aggies 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
New Mexico State Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Liberty Flames | L 14–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks | L 0–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sam Houston Bearkats | W 30–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida International Panthers | L 3–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | W 34–13 | – | – | matchup |
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | W 51–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | L 28–44 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida International Panthers | W 26–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Delaware Blue Hens | W 33–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas Jayhawks | L 0–55 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at New Mexico State Aggies | 31–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico State Aggies at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 36–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at New Mexico State Aggies | 7–13 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New Mexico State Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Aggies– 6th · L2
- Aggies rating1309 125th of 138, 8 games
- Blue Raiders– 3rd · W1
- Blue Raiders rating1363 114th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $NMSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico State Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MTSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New Mexico State Aggies at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Middle Tennessee 68% to win. Projected score Middle Tennessee 30, New Mexico State 22; spread Middle Tennessee −7.5, total 52. New Mexico State Aggies at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ET.