Massachusetts Minutemen vs Bowling Green Falcons prediction, odds and picks, November 28, 2026
Massachusetts at Bowling Green: Bandwagon's model makes Bowling Green a 75% favorite (Bowling Green −11).
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Bowling Green Falcons odds and win probability
Axle gives Bowling Green a 75% chance to win, by about 11 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Bowling Green
All CFB ratings| MASS | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1266 131st of 138 | 1351 121st of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | BGSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 75% | +2 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 73% | — |
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Bowling Green Falcons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Falcons a 11-point favorite at home, with a 75% chance to win. The model total is 50.5. Ratings: Falcons 1351 (121st of 138), Minutemen 1266 (131st). The Falcons have won 2 of their last 5; the Minutemen 1 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Falcons won 1, the Minutemen 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Massachusetts Minutemen
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Ball State Cardinals | W 31–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UConn Huskies | L 16–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Bulls | L 18–25 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami (OH) RedHawks | L 19–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Eastern Michigan Eagles | L 14–38 | – | – | matchup |
Bowling Green Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kent State Golden Flashes | W 33–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Michigan Broncos | L 10–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Bulls | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ball State Cardinals | L 31–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento State Hornets | W 38–10 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green Falcons at Massachusetts Minutemen | 45–14 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Massachusetts Minutemen: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Bowling Green Falcons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Minutemen– 6th · W1
- Minutemen rating1266 131st of 138, 7 games
- Falcons– 10th · W1
- Falcons rating1351 121st of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MASS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Massachusetts Minutemen bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $BGSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bowling Green Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Massachusetts Minutemen at Bowling Green Falcons
Sign in to post a take on $MASSBGSU261128: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Bowling Green 75% to win. Projected score Bowling Green 31, Massachusetts 20; spread Bowling Green −11, total 50.5. Massachusetts Minutemen at Bowling Green Falcons, Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 PM ET.