Louisville Cardinals vs Kentucky Wildcats prediction, odds and picks, November 28, 2026
Louisville at Kentucky: Bandwagon's model makes Louisville a 54% favorite (Louisville −1.5).
Louisville Cardinals vs Kentucky Wildcats odds and win probability
Axle gives Louisville a 54% chance to win, by about 1.4 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Louisville
All CFB ratings| LOU | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1653 23rd of 138 | 1578 40th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | UK win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | — |
Louisville Cardinals vs Kentucky Wildcats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Cardinals a 1.5-point favorite, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 58. Ratings: Wildcats 1578 (40th of 138), Cardinals 1653 (23rd). The Wildcats have won 4 of their last 5; the Cardinals 4 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Wildcats won 2, the Cardinals 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Louisville Cardinals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | W 44–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stanford Cardinal | W 52–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Syracuse Orange | W 34–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida State Seminoles | W 44–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at NC State Wolfpack | L 28–31 | – | – | matchup |
Kentucky Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Tennessee Volunteers | L 6–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vanderbilt Commodores | W 34–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma Sooners | W 21–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LSU Tigers | W 35–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Carolina Gamecocks | W 35–34 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals | 0–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats | 41–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals | 38–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats | 13–26 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Louisville Cardinals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Kentucky Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cardinals– 5th · W4
- Cardinals rating1653 23rd of 138, 8 games
- Wildcats– 3rd · L1
- Wildcats rating1578 40th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak W4
No stances yet today on $LOU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Louisville Cardinals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UK: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kentucky Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Louisville 54% to win. Projected score Louisville 30, Kentucky 28; spread Louisville −1.5, total 58. Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats, Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 AM ET.