Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Kansas State at TCU: Bandwagon's model makes TCU a 76% favorite (TCU −11); Kalshi prices them at 77%.
Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs model odds and win probability
Axle gives TCU a 76% chance to win, by about 11 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that TCU win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 76%.
The largest gap is 2 points: Polymarket has TCU at 78%, Axle at 76%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has TCU
All CFB ratings| KSU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1447 85th of 138 | 1552 51st of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | TCU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 76% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 75% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:34 PM ET | 76% | +9 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:14 AM ET | 67% | −1 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:59 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:16 PM ET | 68% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 66% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 65% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 62% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 63% | — |
Kansas State vs TCU odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Horned Frogs at 77%, Polymarket at 78% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 76%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | KSU | TCU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 23% | 77% | ||
| Polymarket | 22% | 78% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 24% | 76% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Kansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Horned Frogs a 11-point favorite at home, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 49. Ratings: Horned Frogs 1552 (51st of 138), Wildcats 1447 (85th). The Horned Frogs have won 2 of their last 5; the Wildcats 1 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Horned Frogs won 1, the Wildcats 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Kansas State Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oklahoma State Cowboys | L 28–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Buffaloes | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona State Sun Devils | L 17–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas Jayhawks | W 35–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Cougars | L 16–35 | – | – | matchup |
TCU Horned Frogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 28–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas Jayhawks | W 22–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs West Virginia Mountaineers | L 20–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Baylor Bears | W 17–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs BYU Cougars | L 10–17 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas State Wildcats | 28–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas State Wildcats | 3–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs | 31–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs | 28–38 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Kansas State Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
TCU Horned Frogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wildcats– 14th · L3
- Wildcats rating1447 85th of 138, 8 games
- Horned Frogs– 13th · L1
- Horned Frogs rating1552 51st of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 14th · streak L3
No stances yet today on $KSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kansas State Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 13th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $TCU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the TCU Horned Frogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: TCU 76% to win. Projected score TCU 30, Kansas State 19; spread TCU −11, total 49. Kalshi 77%, Polymarket 78% for TCU. Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs, Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM ET.