Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs Nevada Wolf Pack prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Hawai'i at Nevada: Bandwagon's model makes Nevada a 57% favorite (Nevada −2.5); Kalshi prices them at 74%.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs Nevada Wolf Pack model odds and win probability
Axle gives Nevada a 57% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Nevada win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 57%.
The largest gap is 17 points: Kalshi has Nevada at 74%, Axle at 57%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Nevada
All CFB ratings| HAW | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1404 104th of 138 | 1388 107th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | NEV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 57% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 58% | −1 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 59% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 58% | −1 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 12:14 AM ET | 59% | −4 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | — |
Hawai'i vs Nevada odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Wolf Pack at 74%, Polymarket at 64% (10 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 57%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | HAW | NEV | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 26% | 74% | ||
| Polymarket | 36% | 64% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 43% | 57% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs Nevada Wolf Pack prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Wolf Pack a 2.5-point favorite at home, with a 57% chance to win. The model total is 47.5. Ratings: Wolf Pack 1388 (107th of 138), Rainbow Warriors 1404 (104th). The Wolf Pack have won 2 of their last 5; the Rainbow Warriors 2 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Wolf Pack won 0, the Rainbow Warriors 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UTEP Miners | W 17–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northern Illinois Huskies | W 56–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico Lobos | L 10–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona State Sun Devils | L 12–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San José State Spartans | L 16–20 | – | – | matchup |
Nevada Wolf Pack
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New Mexico Lobos | L 3–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UCLA Bruins | L 0–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San José State Spartans | W 28–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at North Dakota State Bison | L 17–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTEP Miners | W 30–13 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Wolf Pack at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 13–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack | 27–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nevada Wolf Pack at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 16–31 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Nevada Wolf Pack: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Rainbow Warriors– 8th · W2
- Rainbow Warriors rating1404 104th of 138, 9 games
- Wolf Pack– 7th · L2
- Wolf Pack rating1388 107th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $HAW: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $NEV: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Nevada Wolf Pack bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack
Sign in to post a take on $HAWNEV261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:11 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Nevada 57% to win. Projected score Nevada 25, Hawai'i 22; spread Nevada −2.5, total 47.5. Kalshi 74%, Polymarket 64% for Nevada. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack, Sat, Nov 21, 10:30 PM ET.