Georgia Southern Eagles vs Troy Trojans prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Georgia Southern at Troy: Bandwagon's model makes Georgia Southern a 65% favorite (Georgia Southern −6).
Georgia Southern Eagles vs Troy Trojans model odds and win probability
Axle gives Georgia Southern a 65% chance to win, by about 6 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Georgia Southern win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 65%.
The largest gap is 3 points: Polymarket has Georgia Southern at 68%, Axle at 65%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Georgia Southern
All CFB ratings| GASO | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1539 55th of 138 | 1396 106th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | TROY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 35% | −5 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 40% | −7 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | — |
Georgia Southern vs Troy odds on Polymarket
Every College football marketPolymarket prices Eagles at 68%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 65%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | GASO | TROY | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 68% | 32% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 65% | 35% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Georgia Southern Eagles vs Troy Trojans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Eagles a 6-point favorite, with a 65% chance to win. The model total is 50. Ratings: Trojans 1396 (106th of 138), Eagles 1539 (55th). The Trojans have won 2 of their last 5; the Eagles 4 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Trojans won 1, the Eagles 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Georgia Southern Eagles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Marshall Thundering Herd | W 49–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs App State Mountaineers | W 19–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Old Dominion Monarchs | W 23–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs James Madison Dukes | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup |
Troy Trojans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 17–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| at James Madison Dukes | W 24–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UL Monroe Warhawks | L 14–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 6–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | W 55–34 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Trojans at Georgia Southern Eagles | 28–20 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Georgia Southern Eagles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Troy Trojans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Eagles– Sun Belt - East, 2nd · W3
- Eagles rating1539 55th of 138, 8 games
- Trojans– Sun Belt - West, 5th · L1
- Trojans rating1396 106th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - East · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $GASO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Georgia Southern Eagles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 5th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $TROY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Troy Trojans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Georgia Southern Eagles at Troy Trojans
Sign in to post a take on $GASOTROY261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:11 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Georgia Southern 65% to win. Projected score Georgia Southern 28, Troy 22; spread Georgia Southern −6, total 50. Polymarket 68% for Georgia Southern. Georgia Southern Eagles at Troy Trojans, Sat, Nov 21, 4:00 PM ET.