Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Cincinnati at Iowa State: Bandwagon's model makes Iowa State a 59% favorite (Iowa State −3.5); Kalshi prices them at 59%.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones model odds and win probability
Axle gives Iowa State a 59% chance to win, by about 4 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Iowa State win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 59%.
All 3 sources have Iowa State at 59%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Iowa State
All CFB ratings| CIN | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1507 64th of 138 | 1504 66th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ISU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 59% | +2 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:40 PM ET | 57% | −4 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:59 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 61% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:16 PM ET | 59% | +4 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 55% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 52% | −1 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 53% | — |
Cincinnati vs Iowa State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Cyclones at 59%, Polymarket at 59%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 59%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CIN | ISU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 41% | 59% | ||
| Polymarket | 41% | 59% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 41% | 59% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Cyclones a 3.5-point favorite at home, with a 59% chance to win. The model total is 57.5. Ratings: Cyclones 1504 (66th of 138), Bearcats 1507 (64th). The Cyclones have won 2 of their last 5; the Bearcats 1 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Cyclones won 2, the Bearcats 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Cincinnati Bearcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Houston Cougars | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Utes | L 25–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | W 37–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at West Virginia Mountaineers | L 42–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 7–34 | – | – | matchup |
Iowa State Cyclones
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Baylor Bears | L 31–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma State Cowboys | W 51–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 3–39 | – | – | matchup | |
| at BYU Cougars | L 10–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs West Virginia Mountaineers | W 45–42 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State Cyclones at Cincinnati Bearcats | 30–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cincinnati Bearcats at Iowa State Cyclones | 17–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| Iowa State Cyclones at Cincinnati Bearcats | 30–10 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Cincinnati Bearcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Iowa State Cyclones: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bearcats– 11th · L2
- Bearcats rating1507 64th of 138, 8 games
- Cyclones– 12th · L1
- Cyclones rating1504 66th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 11th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $CIN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cincinnati Bearcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 12th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ISU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Iowa State Cyclones bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Cincinnati Bearcats at Iowa State Cyclones
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Iowa State 59% to win. Projected score Iowa State 31, Cincinnati 27; spread Iowa State −3.5, total 57.5. Kalshi 59%, Polymarket 59% for Iowa State. Cincinnati Bearcats at Iowa State Cyclones, Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET.