Cincinnati Bearcats vs Houston Cougars prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerHouston 75%
- Projected scoreHouston 34, Cincinnati 23
- Model spreadHouston −11 total 56
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Cincinnati Bearcats or Houston Cougars: the bandwagon
Axle 25–75Market 21–79
Cincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Houston Cougars live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Houston Cougars team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | CIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CIN– | HOU– |
| Average win probability | CIN– | HOU– |
| Longest scoring run | CIN– | HOU– |
| Time leading | CIN– | HOU– |
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Houston Cougars model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | HOU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:16 PM ET | 75% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 72% | −6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 78% | — |
- Ratings
- HOU 1623 · CIN 1521
- Home spread
- −11
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Cincinnati vs Houston odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Cougars at 79%, Polymarket at 79%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 75%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CIN | HOU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 21% | 79% | ||
| Polymarket | 21% | 79% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 25% | 75% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Houston Cougars prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Cougars a 11-point favorite at home, with a 75% chance to win. The model total is 56. Ratings: Cougars 1623 (27th of 138), Bearcats 1521 (63rd). The Cougars have won 4 of their last 5; the Bearcats 2 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Cougars won 0, the Bearcats 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Cincinnati Bearcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Utah Utes | L 25–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | W 37–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at West Virginia Mountaineers | L 42–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 7–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas State Wildcats | W 31–26 | – | – | matchup |
Houston Cougars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Utah Utes | L 13–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma State Cowboys | W 35–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas State Wildcats | W 35–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UCF Knights | W 27–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia Southern Eagles | W 42–28 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats | 0–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars | 24–14 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Cincinnati Bearcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Houston Cougars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bearcats– 9th · L1
- Bearcats rating1521 63rd of 138, 7 games
- Cougars– 4th · L1
- Cougars rating1623 27th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 9th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CIN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cincinnati Bearcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $HOU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Houston Cougars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Cincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars
Sign in to post a take on $CINHOU261107: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Houston 75% to win. Projected score Houston 34, Cincinnati 23; spread Houston −11, total 56. Kalshi 79%, Polymarket 79% for Houston. Cincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars, Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET.