Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Arkansas State at Louisiana Tech: Bandwagon's model makes Louisiana Tech an 81% favorite (Louisiana Tech −14.5); Kalshi prices them at 85%.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs model odds and win probability
Axle gives Louisiana Tech a 81% chance to win, by about 15 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Louisiana Tech win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 81%.
The largest gap is 4 points: Kalshi has Louisiana Tech at 85%, Axle at 81%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Louisiana Tech
All CFB ratings| ARST | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1424 92nd of 138 | 1578 41st of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | LT win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 81% | −1 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 82% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 81% | +3 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 78% | +3 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | — |
Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Bulldogs at 85%, Polymarket at 81% (4 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 81%.
Prices read: Kalshi (not de-vigged); Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ARST | LT | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 15% | 85% | · not de-vigged | |
| Polymarket | 19% | 81% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 19% | 81% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulldogs a 14.5-point favorite at home, with a 81% chance to win. The model total is 52. Ratings: Bulldogs 1578 (41st of 138), Red Wolves 1424 (92nd). The Bulldogs have won 5 of their last 5; the Red Wolves 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UL Monroe Warhawks | L 17–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia State Panthers | W 38–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Southern Miss Golden Eagles | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Alabama Jaguars | L 49–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 20–23 | – | – | matchup |
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Troy Trojans | W 41–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Alabama Jaguars | W 35–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Old Dominion Monarchs | W 26–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UL Monroe Warhawks | W 24–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W 32–31 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Arkansas State Red Wolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Red Wolves– Sun Belt - West, 4th · L1
- Red Wolves rating1424 92nd of 138, 8 games
- Bulldogs– Sun Belt - West, 1st · W6
- Bulldogs rating1578 41st of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ARST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas State Red Wolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 1st · streak W6
No stances yet today on $LT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Sign in to post a take on $ARSTLT261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:11 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Louisiana Tech 81% to win. Projected score Louisiana Tech 33, Arkansas State 19; spread Louisiana Tech −14.5, total 52. Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 81% for Louisiana Tech. Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ET.