Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerArizona State 57%
- Projected scoreArizona State 28, UCF 25
- Model spreadArizona State −2.5 total 53.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Arizona State Sun Devils or UCF Knights: the bandwagon
Axle 57–43Market 49–51
Arizona State Sun Devils at UCF Knights win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ASU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ASU– | UCF– |
| Average win probability | ASU– | UCF– |
| Longest scoring run | ASU– | UCF– |
| Time leading | ASU– | UCF– |
Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | UCF win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 43% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 42% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 41% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 42% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 41% | −8 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 49% | −8 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 57% | — |
- Ratings
- UCF 1428 · ASU 1520
- Home spread
- +2.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Arizona State vs UCF odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Sun Devils at 47%, Polymarket at 50% (3 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 57%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ASU | UCF | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 47% | 53% | ||
| Polymarket | 50% | 50% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 57% | 43% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Sun Devils a 2.5-point favorite, with a 57% chance to win. The model total is 53.5. Ratings: Knights 1428 (90th of 138), Sun Devils 1520 (64th). The Knights have won 2 of their last 5; the Sun Devils 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Knights won 0, the Sun Devils 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Arizona State Sun Devils
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at BYU Cougars | L 20–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas State Wildcats | W 28–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Tech Red Raiders | L 25–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | W 30–12 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Baylor Bears | L 19–55 | – | – | matchup |
UCF Knights
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Baylor Bears | L 9–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs BYU Cougars | W 39–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma State Cowboys | L 28–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Cougars | L 17–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs TCU Horned Frogs | W 21–13 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF Knights at Arizona State Sun Devils | 31–35 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Arizona State Sun Devils: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UCF Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Sun Devils– 12th · L1
- Sun Devils rating1520 64th of 138, 7 games
- Knights– 11th · L1
- Knights rating1428 90th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 12th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ASU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arizona State Sun Devils bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 11th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UCF: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UCF Knights bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Arizona State Sun Devils at UCF Knights
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Model: Arizona State 57% to win. Projected score Arizona State 28, UCF 25; spread Arizona State −2.5, total 53.5. Kalshi 47%, Polymarket 50% for Arizona State. Arizona State Sun Devils at UCF Knights, Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 AM ET.