App State Mountaineers vs Marshall Thundering Herd prediction, odds and picks, November 14, 2026
- Projected winnerMarshall 73%
- Projected scoreMarshall 30, App State 21
- Model spreadMarshall −10 total 51
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
App State Mountaineers or Marshall Thundering Herd: the bandwagon
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Axle 27–73Market –
App State Mountaineers at Marshall Thundering Herd win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
App State Mountaineers vs Marshall Thundering Herd live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
App State Mountaineers vs Marshall Thundering Herd team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | APP | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | APP– | MRSH– |
| Average win probability | APP– | MRSH– |
| Longest scoring run | APP– | MRSH– |
| Time leading | APP– | MRSH– |
App State Mountaineers vs Marshall Thundering Herd odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MRSH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 73% | +4 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 69% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 70% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 69% | +5 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 64% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 61% | — |
- Ratings
- MRSH 1509 · APP 1422
- Home spread
- −10
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
App State Mountaineers vs Marshall Thundering Herd prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Thundering Herd a 10-point favorite at home, with a 73% chance to win. The model total is 51. Ratings: Thundering Herd 1509 (65th of 138), Mountaineers 1422 (94th). The Thundering Herd have won 3 of their last 5; the Mountaineers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Thundering Herd won 2, the Mountaineers 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
App State Mountaineers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Georgia Southern Eagles | L 3–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs James Madison Dukes | W 34–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | W 35–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Old Dominion Monarchs | L 3–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at NC State Wolfpack | L 31–41 | – | – | matchup |
Marshall Thundering Herd
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Old Dominion Monarchs | W 36–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Alabama Jaguars | W 20–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | L 21–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at James Madison Dukes | L 17–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Missouri State Bears | W 30–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall Thundering Herd at App State Mountaineers | 24–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| App State Mountaineers at Marshall Thundering Herd | 37–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| Marshall Thundering Herd at App State Mountaineers | 9–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| App State Mountaineers at Marshall Thundering Herd | 21–28 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
App State Mountaineers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Marshall Thundering Herd: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mountaineers– Sun Belt - East, 2nd · L1
- Mountaineers rating1422 94th of 138, 7 games
- Thundering Herd– Sun Belt - East, 3rd · W2
- Thundering Herd rating1509 65th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - East · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $APP: the share of the crowd ▲ on the App State Mountaineers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - East · 3rd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $MRSH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Marshall Thundering Herd bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Marshall 73% to win. Projected score Marshall 30, App State 21; spread Marshall −10, total 51. App State Mountaineers at Marshall Thundering Herd, Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM ET.