Valparaiso Beacons vs Purdue Boilermakers prediction, odds and picks, November 6, 2026
- Projected winnerPurdue 82%
- Projected scorePurdue 78, Valparaiso 67
- Model spreadPurdue −11 total 145
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Valparaiso Beacons or Purdue Boilermakers: the bandwagon
Axle 18–82Market –
Valparaiso Beacons at Purdue Boilermakers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Valparaiso Beacons vs Purdue Boilermakers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Valparaiso Beacons vs Purdue Boilermakers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | VAL | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAL– | PUR– |
| Average win probability | VAL– | PUR– |
| Longest scoring run | VAL– | PUR– |
| Time leading | VAL– | PUR– |
Valparaiso Beacons vs Purdue Boilermakers odds
Every stored line
| Stored | PUR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 9:40 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:40 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:05 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:20 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:28 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:48 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:33 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:24 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:10 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:40 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 82% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 83% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 84% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:08 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:55 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 83% | −5 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 88% | +23 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- PUR 1672 · VAL 1526
- Home spread
- −11
- Stored
- Nov 4, 9:40 PM ET · 2026-11-05 02:40 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Valparaiso Beacons vs Purdue Boilermakers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Boilermakers a 11-point favorite at home, with a 82% chance to win. The model total is 145. Ratings: Boilermakers 1672 (12th of 361), Beacons 1526 (134th). The Boilermakers are 0-1; the Beacons are 1-0. The Boilermakers have won 4 of their last 5; the Beacons 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Valparaiso Beacons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Western Illinois Leathernecks | W 80–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bradley Braves | L 84–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indiana State Sycamores | W 63–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Evansville Purple Aces | L 79–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Drake Bulldogs | W 74–71 | – | – | matchup |
Purdue Boilermakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Purdue Boilermakers | W 78–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 64–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas Longhorns | W 79–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Hurricanes | W 79–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | W 80–72 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Valparaiso Beacons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Purdue Boilermakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Beacons1-0 8th · W1
- Beacons rating1526 134th of 361, 1 games
- Boilermakers0-1 18th · L1
- Boilermakers rating1672 12th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $VALMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Valparaiso Beacons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 18th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $PURMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Purdue Boilermakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Valparaiso Beacons at Purdue Boilermakers
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Model: Purdue 82% to win. Projected score Purdue 78, Valparaiso 67; spread Purdue −11, total 145. Valparaiso Beacons at Purdue Boilermakers, Fri, Nov 6, 6:30 PM ET.