UT Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction, odds and picks, November 10, 2026
- Projected winnerArkansas State 75%
- Projected scoreArkansas State 79, UT Martin 70
- Model spreadArkansas State −8.5 total 149.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
UT Martin Skyhawks or Arkansas State Red Wolves: the bandwagon
Axle 25–75Market –
UT Martin Skyhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
UT Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
UT Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UTM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTM– | ARST– |
| Average win probability | UTM– | ARST– |
| Longest scoring run | UTM– | ARST– |
| Time leading | UTM– | ARST– |
UT Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ARST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:51 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:16 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:25 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:14 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 75% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 78% | +13 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- ARST 1560 · UTM 1479
- Home spread
- −8.5
- Stored
- Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET · 2026-11-05 10:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
UT Martin Skyhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Red Wolves a 8.5-point favorite at home, with a 75% chance to win. The model total is 149.5. Ratings: Red Wolves 1560 (78th of 361), Skyhawks 1479 (214th). The Red Wolves are 1-0; the Skyhawks are 0-1. The Red Wolves have won 4 of their last 5; the Skyhawks 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Red Wolves won 1, the Skyhawks 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
UT Martin Skyhawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Tulane Green Wave | L 98–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tennessee State Tigers | L 55–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Eastern Illinois Panthers | W 66–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee State Tigers | L 42–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles | W 64–49 | – | – | matchup |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Toledo Rockets | W 71–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | L 77–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W 81–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | W 89–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UL Monroe Warhawks | W 102–94 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Martin Skyhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves | 64–70 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
UT Martin Skyhawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Arkansas State Red Wolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Skyhawks0-1 8th · L1
- Skyhawks rating1479 214th of 361, 1 games
- Red Wolves1-0 2nd · W1
- Red Wolves rating1560 78th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UTMMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UT Martin Skyhawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $ARSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas State Red Wolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UT Martin Skyhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves
Sign in to post a take on $UTMMBBARSTMBB261111: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Arkansas State 75% to win. Projected score Arkansas State 79, UT Martin 70; spread Arkansas State −8.5, total 149.5. UT Martin Skyhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves, Tue, Nov 10, 8:00 PM ET.