Manhattan Jaspers lead Kentucky Wildcats 6-2 with 16:39 left in the 1st period, a 4-point margin for the Jaspers. The model still has Kentucky at 85%, but the scoreboard favors Manhattan right now.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Rupp Arena · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Manhattan Jaspers vs Kentucky Wildcats: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreManhattan 57, Kentucky 85 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerKentucky 85%
- Pregame Projected scoreKentucky 79, Manhattan 67
- Model spreadKentucky −12.5 total 145.5
- Margin28 projected 12.5
- Total142 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Manhattan Jaspers or Kentucky Wildcats: the bandwagon
Axle 15–85Market –
FinalPregame: UK 85%Baseline: UK 94.4% (+9.6)Big swing: 15.8 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAN | 22 | 35 | 57 |
| UK | 48 | 37 | 85 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Manhattan Jaspers at Kentucky Wildcats win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for UK over the last 5:00
Big swing15.8 ptstoward UK at 9:37 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final half
BaselineUK 94.4%game average, +9.6 points from the pregame 84.8%
Manhattan Jaspers vs Kentucky Wildcats live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MAN | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | MAN19/54 | UK32/60 |
| 3-pointers | MAN7/26 | UK12/31 |
| Free throws | MAN12/23 | UK9/11 |
| Rebounds | MAN26 | UK40 |
| Assists | MAN7 | UK20 |
| Turnovers | MAN13 | UK14 |
| Steals | MAN9 | UK9 |
| Blocks | MAN3 | UK4 |
| Points in the paint | MAN18 | UK30 |
| Fast-break points | MAN7 | UK19 |
| Fouls | MAN12 | UK19 |
| Largest lead | MAN5 | UK39 |
Manhattan Jaspers vs Kentucky Wildcats team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MAN | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MAN57 | UK85 |
| Average win probability | MAN6% | UK94% |
| Longest scoring run | MAN+5 | UK+10 |
| Time leading | MAN6:16 | UK30:14 |
Manhattan Jaspers vs Kentucky Wildcats odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET
Jaspers15%
Win chanceWildcats85%
SpreadUK −12.5closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+559away / −559homeaway / home
Line movementUK win chance, 37 stored lines
+20 pts for UK between Oct 29 and Nov 3
94%60%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | UK win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:24 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:40 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:51 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 85% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 89% | +24 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- UK 1596 · MAN 1415
- Home spread
- −12.5
- Stored
- Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-03 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Manhattan Jaspers 57, Kentucky Wildcats 85. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
JaspersWildcats
Neutrals only–
JaspersWildcats
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Wildcats–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Manhattan Jaspers vs Kentucky Wildcats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Wildcats a 12.5-point favorite at home, with a 85% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Wildcats 1604 (44th of 361), Jaspers 1407 (312th). The Wildcats are 1-0; the Jaspers are 0-1. The Wildcats have won 3 of their last 5; the Jaspers 0 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Manhattan Jaspers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Kentucky Wildcats | L 57–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Fairfield Stags | L 60–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iona Gaels | L 65–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Saint Peter's Peacocks | L 65–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marist Red Foxes | L 70–84 | – | – | matchup |
Kentucky Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Manhattan Jaspers | W 85–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Iowa State Cyclones | L 63–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Santa Clara Broncos | W 89–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Gators | L 63–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Missouri Tigers | W 78–72 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Manhattan Jaspers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Kentucky Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Jaspers0-1 4th · L1
- Jaspers rating1407 312th of 361, 1 games
- Wildcats1-0 5th · W1
- Wildcats rating1604 44th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MANMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MANMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MANMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MANMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Manhattan Jaspers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UKMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UKMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UKMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UKMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kentucky Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Manhattan Jaspers at Kentucky Wildcats
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