UCF Knights lead Florida Gulf Coast Eagles 4-2 with 17:21 left in the 1st, and the model gives the home side a 74% chance. The crowd has not made any picks yet, so there is no crowd split to report.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Addition Financial Arena · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs UCF Knights: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreFlorida Gulf Coast 95, UCF 96 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerUCF 74%
- Pregame Projected scoreUCF 77, Florida Gulf Coast 69
- Model spreadUCF −8 total 145.5
- Margin1 projected 7.9
- Total191 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles or UCF Knights: the bandwagon
Axle 26–74Market –
Final · OTPregame: UCF 74%Baseline: UCF 71.3% (−2.3)Big swing: 85.5 ptsClutch window: 20:25
| Team | 1 | 2 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FGCU | 38 | 44 | 13 | 95 |
| UCF | 36 | 46 | 14 | 96 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at UCF Knights win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to UCF+6.5 points for UCF over the last 5:00
Big swing85.5 ptstoward FGCU at 39:58 of game time
Clutch window20:25within 5 points in the final half
BaselineUCF 71.3%game average, −2.3 points from the pregame 73.6%
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs UCF Knights live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | FGCU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | FGCU29/64 | UCF31/58 |
| 3-pointers | FGCU12/33 | UCF9/18 |
| Free throws | FGCU25/27 | UCF25/38 |
| Rebounds | FGCU37 | UCF27 |
| Assists | FGCU17 | UCF16 |
| Turnovers | FGCU13 | UCF9 |
| Steals | FGCU4 | UCF5 |
| Blocks | FGCU1 | UCF5 |
| Points in the paint | FGCU26 | UCF34 |
| Fast-break points | FGCU9 | UCF13 |
| Fouls | FGCU27 | UCF21 |
| Largest lead | FGCU5 | UCF12 |
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs UCF Knights team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | FGCU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FGCU95 | UCF96 |
| Average win probability | FGCU29% | UCF71% |
| Longest scoring run | FGCU+5 | UCF+7 |
| Time leading | FGCU2:21 | UCF16:42 |
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs UCF Knights odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET
Eagles26%
Win chanceKnights74%
SpreadUCF −8closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+279away / −279homeaway / home
Line movementUCF win chance, 17 stored lines
+9 pts for UCF between Oct 29 and Nov 2
82%60%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | UCF win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:08 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 74% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 76% | +11 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- UCF 1555 · FGCU 1490
- Home spread
- −8
- Stored
- Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET · 2026-11-03 02:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles 95, UCF Knights 96. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
EaglesKnights
Neutrals only–
EaglesKnights
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Knights–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs UCF Knights prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Knights a 8-point favorite at home, with a 74% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Knights 1557 (82nd of 361), Eagles 1489 (197th). The Knights are 1-0; the Eagles are 0-1. The Knights have won 2 of their last 5; the Eagles 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Knights won 1, the Eagles 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UCF Knights | L 95–96 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Central Arkansas Bears | L 63–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lipscomb Bisons | W 77–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Alabama Lions | W 69–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stetson Hatters | L 63–78 | – | – | matchup |
UCF Knights
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | W 96–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UCLA Bruins | L 71–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 59–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cincinnati Bearcats | W 66–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| at West Virginia Mountaineers | L 62–77 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at UCF Knights | 80–102 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UCF Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Eagles0-1 6th · L1
- Eagles rating1489 197th of 361, 1 games
- Knights1-0 11th · W1
- Knights rating1557 82nd of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak L1
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No stances yet today on $FGCUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
UCF Knights 1-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 11th · streak W1
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