Texas A&M Aggies lead Alabama State Hornets 4-2 with 17:17 left in the 1st period, a two-goal margin at kickoff. Our model gives the Aggies an 85% chance, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Reed Arena · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Alabama State Hornets vs Texas A&M Aggies: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreAlabama State 66, Texas A&M 97 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerTexas A&M 86%
- Pregame Projected scoreTexas A&M 79, Alabama State 66
- Model spreadTexas A&M −13 total 145.5
- Margin31 projected 12.8
- Total163 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Alabama State Hornets or Texas A&M Aggies: the bandwagon
Axle 14–86Market –
FinalPregame: TA&M 85%Baseline: TA&M 95.9% (+10.4)Big swing: 5.7 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALST | 29 | 37 | 66 |
| TA&M | 44 | 53 | 97 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Alabama State Hornets at Texas A&M Aggies win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for TA&M over the last 5:00
Big swing5.7 ptstoward TA&M at 3:05 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final half
BaselineTA&M 95.9%game average, +10.4 points from the pregame 85.5%
Alabama State Hornets vs Texas A&M Aggies live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ALST | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | ALST22/67 | TA&M30/62 |
| 3-pointers | ALST8/24 | TA&M8/23 |
| Free throws | ALST14/19 | TA&M29/48 |
| Rebounds | ALST44 | TA&M43 |
| Assists | ALST11 | TA&M13 |
| Turnovers | ALST25 | TA&M11 |
| Steals | ALST5 | TA&M13 |
| Blocks | ALST1 | TA&M6 |
| Points in the paint | ALST26 | TA&M42 |
| Fast-break points | ALST3 | TA&M18 |
| Fouls | ALST32 | TA&M18 |
| Largest lead | ALST0 | TA&M33 |
Alabama State Hornets vs Texas A&M Aggies team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ALST | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ALST66 | TA&M97 |
| Average win probability | ALST4% | TA&M96% |
| Longest scoring run | ALST+7 | TA&M+15 |
| Time leading | ALST0:00 | TA&M36:55 |
Alabama State Hornets vs Texas A&M Aggies odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET
Hornets14%
Win chanceAggies86%
SpreadTA&M −13closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+591away / −591homeaway / home
Line movementTA&M win chance, 39 stored lines
+21 pts for TA&M between Oct 29 and Nov 3
95%60%
Oct 29Nov 1Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | TA&M win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:03 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:13 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:53 PM ET | 86% | +1 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 85% | −1 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 86% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 85% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 89% | +24 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- TA&M 1587 · ALST 1397
- Home spread
- −13
- Stored
- Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET · 2026-11-04 03:13 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Alabama State Hornets 66, Texas A&M Aggies 97. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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HornetsAggies
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HornetsAggies
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Aggies–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Alabama State Hornets vs Texas A&M Aggies prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Aggies a 13-point favorite at home, with a 86% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Aggies 1595 (50th of 361), Hornets 1389 (332nd). The Aggies are 1-0; the Hornets are 0-1. The Aggies have won 3 of their last 5; the Hornets 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Alabama State Hornets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Texas A&M Aggies | L 66–97 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alcorn State Braves | L 65–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Grambling Tigers | L 63–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Jaguars | L 64–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Alabama A&M Bulldogs | W 89–88 | – | – | matchup |
Texas A&M Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Alabama State Hornets | W 97–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Cougars | L 57–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Saint Mary's Gaels | W 63–50 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma Sooners | L 63–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LSU Tigers | W 94–91 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Alabama State Hornets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Texas A&M Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hornets0-1 4th · L1
- Hornets rating1389 332nd of 361, 1 games
- Aggies1-0 13th · W1
- Aggies rating1595 50th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak L1
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No stances yet today on $ALSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alabama State Hornets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Texas A&M Aggies 1-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 13th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TAMMBB
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No stances yet today on $TAMMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas A&M Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Final: Alabama State 66, Texas A&M 97. Bandwagon's model had the Texas A&M at 86% and projected Texas A&M 79, Alabama State 66; spread Texas A&M −13, total 145.5.