Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Maple Leafs at Islanders: Bandwagon's model makes the Islanders a 56% favorite (Islanders −0.5).
Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Islanders a 56% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Islanders win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 56%.
All 2 sources have the Islanders at 56%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
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Why Axle has the Islanders
All NHL ratings| TOR | NYI | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1463 28th of 32 | 1475 22nd of 32 |
| Record | 8-10-2 | 7-6-4 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | NYI win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 56% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 55% | — |
Maple Leafs vs Islanders odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Islanders at 56%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 56%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TOR | NYI | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44% | 56% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 44% | 56% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Islanders a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Islanders 1475 (22nd of 32), Maple Leafs 1463 (28th). The Islanders are 7-6-4 in the Metropolitan Division; the Maple Leafs are 8-10-2 in the Atlantic Division. The Islanders have won 1 of their last 5; the Maple Leafs 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Islanders won 4, the Maple Leafs 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Colorado Avalanche | L 3–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Jersey Devils | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Montreal Canadiens | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Mammoth | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vancouver Canucks | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup |
New York Islanders
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San Jose Sharks | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Jersey Devils | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Carolina Hurricanes | L 3–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Edmonton Oilers | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Wild | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders | 3–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders | 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Toronto Maple Leafs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New York Islanders: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Maple Leafs8-10-2 Atlantic Division, 7th · L4
- Maple Leafs rating1463 28th of 32, 19 games
- Islanders7-6-4 Metropolitan Division, 5th · L4
- Islanders rating1475 22nd of 32, 17 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Toronto Maple Leafs 8-10-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 7th · streak L4
No stances yet today on $LEAFS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toronto Maple Leafs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
New York Islanders 7-6-4
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 5th · streak L4
No stances yet today on $ISLANDERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New York Islanders bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Islanders 56% to win. Projected score Islanders 3.5, Maple Leafs 3.0; spread Islanders −0.5, total 6.5. Polymarket 56% for the Islanders. Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders, Mon, Nov 23, 7:30 PM ET.