Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerDevils 52%
- Projected scoreDevils 3.4, Capitals 3.1
- Model spreadeven total 6.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Washington Capitals or New Jersey Devils: the bandwagon
Axle 48–52Market 45–55
Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | WSH | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH– | NJ– |
| Average win probability | WSH– | NJ– |
| Longest scoring run | WSH– | NJ– |
| Time leading | WSH– | NJ– |
Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NJ win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:46 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:46 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:43 PM ET | 52% | +1 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:12 PM ET | 51% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 8:41 PM ET | 50% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:55 PM ET | 49% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- NJ 1513 · WSH 1521
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET · 2026-11-05 03:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Capitals vs Devils odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Devils at 55%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 52%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | WSH | NJ | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 45% | 55% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 48% | 52% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Devils the favorite, with a 52% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Devils 1513 (14th of 32), Capitals 1521 (11th). The Devils are 10-5 in the Metropolitan Division; the Capitals are 8-6 in the Metropolitan Division. The Devils have won 4 of their last 5; the Capitals 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Devils won 2, the Capitals 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Washington Capitals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Dallas Stars | L 5–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville Predators | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia Flyers | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Sabres | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup |
New Jersey Devils
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Edmonton Oilers | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vegas Golden Knights | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Avalanche | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Stars | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Kings | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils | 3–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils | 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Washington Capitals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New Jersey Devils: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Capitals8-6 Metropolitan Division, 4th · L2
- Capitals rating1521 11th of 32, 14 games
- Devils10-5 Metropolitan Division, 2nd · W2
- Devils rating1513 14th of 32, 15 games
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 4th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $CAPITALS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Capitals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
New Jersey Devils 10-5
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 2nd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $DEVILS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Jersey Devils bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils
Sign in to post a take on $CAPITALSDEVILS261113: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Devils 52% to win. Projected score Devils 3.4, Capitals 3.1; spread even, total 6.5. Polymarket 55% for the Devils. Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils, Thu, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ET.