Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Warriors at Mavericks: Bandwagon's model makes the Warriors a 55% favorite (even).
Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Warriors a 55% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Warriors win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 55%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Polymarket has the Warriors at 56%, Axle at 55%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has the Warriors
All NBA ratings| GS | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1530 13th of 30 | 1429 21st of 30 |
| Record | 8-3 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 games | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W8 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | DAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:28 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:27 AM ET | 45% | −4 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 49% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:37 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:17 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:13 PM ET | 48% | +3 |
| Nov 8, 9:38 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:43 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:53 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:37 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 45% | −1 |
| Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:20 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:49 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:40 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:30 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:25 PM ET | 46% | +1 |
| Nov 6, 10:20 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:26 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 12:42 AM ET | 45% | −2 |
| Nov 5, 11:31 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 47% | — |
Warriors vs Mavericks odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Warriors at 56%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 55%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | GS | DAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 56% | 44% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 55% | 45% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Warriors the favorite, with a 55% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 228. Ratings: Mavericks 1429 (21st of 30), Warriors 1530 (13th). The Mavericks are 7-4 in the Southwest; the Warriors are 8-3 in the Pacific. The Mavericks have won 3 of their last 5; the Warriors 5 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Mavericks won 3, the Warriors 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Golden State Warriors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New Orleans Pelicans | W 138–87 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando Magic | W 126–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Heat | W 120–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Phoenix Suns | W 116–113 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LA Clippers | W 124–112 | – | – | matchup |
Dallas Mavericks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Indiana Pacers | W 125–122 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brooklyn Nets | W 130–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Jazz | W 112–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Antonio Spurs | L 111–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento Kings | L 100–115 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks | 137–131 | – | – | matchup | |
| Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks | 115–123 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors | 116–126 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors | 102–126 | – | – | matchup | |
| Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks | 107–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors | 143–133 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Golden State Warriors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Dallas Mavericks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Warriors8-3 Pacific, 4th · W8
- Warriors rating1530 13th of 30, 11 games
- Mavericks7-4 Southwest, 2nd · W3
- Mavericks rating1429 21st of 30, 11 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 4th · streak W8
No stances yet today on $WARRIORS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Golden State Warriors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Dallas Mavericks 7-4
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $MAVERICKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Mavericks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.