Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Pacers at Cavaliers: Bandwagon's model makes the Cavaliers an 80% favorite (Cavaliers −11).
Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Cavaliers a 80% chance to win, by about 11 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Cavaliers win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 80%.
The largest gap is 7 points: Axle has the Cavaliers at 80%, Polymarket at 73%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has the Cavaliers
All NBA ratings| IND | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1313 25th of 30 | 1560 11th of 30 |
| Record | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | CLE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:32 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:27 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 80% | −1 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:37 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:32 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:13 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:38 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:43 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:37 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:25 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET | 81% | −1 |
| Nov 7, 10:20 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 82% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 81% | — |
Pacers vs Cavaliers odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Cavaliers at 73%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 80%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | IND | CLE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 27% | 73% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 20% | 80% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Cavaliers a 11-point favorite at home, with a 80% chance to win. The model total is 228.5. Ratings: Cavaliers 1560 (11th of 30), Pacers 1313 (25th). The Cavaliers are 5-6 in the Central; the Pacers are 3-8 in the Central. The Cavaliers have won 1 of their last 5; the Pacers 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Cavaliers won 4, the Pacers 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Indiana Pacers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Dallas Mavericks | L 122–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Denver Nuggets | L 102–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Memphis Grizzlies | W 107–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | L 104–108 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brooklyn Nets | L 90–98 | – | – | matchup |
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Charlotte Hornets | L 112–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Knicks | L 97–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia 76ers | W 119–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma City Thunder | L 116–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | L 112–117 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers | 108–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers | 120–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers | 135–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers | 109–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers | 114–105 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers | 109–129 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Indiana Pacers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Cleveland Cavaliers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Pacers3-8 Central, 3rd · L2
- Pacers rating1313 25th of 30, 11 games
- Cavaliers5-6 Central, 4th · L2
- Cavaliers rating1560 11th of 30, 11 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Indiana Pacers 3-8
National Basketball Association · Central · 3rd · streak L2
No stances yet today on $PACERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Indiana Pacers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Central · 4th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $CAVALIERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cleveland Cavaliers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Cavaliers 80% to win. Projected score Cavaliers 120, Pacers 109; spread Cavaliers −11, total 228.5. Polymarket 73% for the Cavaliers. Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, Fri, Nov 20, 7:30 PM ET.