Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Portland Timbers at FC Dallas: Bandwagon's model makes FC Dallas a 52% favorite (FC Dallas −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 51%.
Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas model odds and win probability
Axle gives FC Dallas a 52% chance to win, with a 25% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every MLS marketEach bar is the chance that FC Dallas win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 52%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Axle has FC Dallas at 52%, Kalshi at 51%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has FC Dallas
All MLS ratings| POR | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1493 15th of 30 | 1544 5th of 30 |
| Record | 13-14-7 | 16-8-10 |
| Last 5 games | 4-0-1 | 2-1-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | DAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:05 AM ET | 52% | — |
Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices FC Dallas at 51%, Polymarket at 51%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 52%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | POR | Draw | DAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 26% | 23% | 51% | ||
| Polymarket | 27% | 22% | 51% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 23% | 25% | 52% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the FC Dallas a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 52% chance to win and a 25% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: FC Dallas 1544 (5th of 30), Portland Timbers 1493 (15th). The FC Dallas are 16-8-10; the Portland Timbers are 13-14-7. The FC Dallas have won 2 of their last 5; the Portland Timbers 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the FC Dallas won 3, the Portland Timbers 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Portland Timbers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Austin FC | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Dynamo FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. Louis CITY SC | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte FC | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado Rapids | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
FC Dallas
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Colorado Rapids | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sporting Kansas City | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Crew | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Jose Earthquakes | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Dynamo FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers at FC Dallas | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Dallas at Portland Timbers | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Dallas at Portland Timbers | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Timbers at FC Dallas | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Dallas at Portland Timbers | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Timbers at FC Dallas | 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Portland Timbers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
FC Dallas: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Portland Timbers13-14-7 7th
- Portland Timbers rating1493 15th of 30, 34 games
- FC Dallas16-8-10 2nd
- FC Dallas rating1544 5th of 30, 34 games
More MLS games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Portland Timbers 13-14-7
Major League Soccer · 7th
No stances yet today on $PORTLAND: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Portland Timbers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
FC Dallas 16-8-10
Major League Soccer · 2nd
No stances yet today on $DALLAS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the FC Dallas bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Portland Timbers at FC Dallas
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: FC Dallas 52% to win, draw 25%. Projected score FC Dallas 1.8, Portland Timbers 1.2; spread FC Dallas −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 51%, Polymarket 51% for FC Dallas. Portland Timbers at FC Dallas, Sat, Nov 21, 4:00 PM ET.