LAFC vs St. Louis CITY SC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
LAFC at St. Louis CITY SC: Bandwagon's model makes St. Louis CITY SC a 48% favorite (St. Louis CITY SC −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 39%.
LAFC vs St. Louis CITY SC model odds and win probability
Axle gives St. Louis CITY SC a 48% chance to win, with a 26% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every MLS marketEach bar is the chance that St. Louis CITY SC win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 48%.
The largest gap is 10 points: Axle has St. Louis CITY SC at 48%, Polymarket at 38%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has St. Louis CITY SC
All MLS ratings| LAFC | STL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1507 10th of 30 | 1523 9th of 30 |
| Record | 12-11-11 | 15-10-9 |
| Last 5 games | 1-2-2 | 1-4 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | STL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 48% | — |
LAFC vs St. Louis CITY SC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices St. Louis CITY SC at 39%, Polymarket at 38% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 48%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LAFC | Draw | STL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 37% | 24% | 39% | ||
| Polymarket | 37% | 25% | 38% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 26% | 26% | 48% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
LAFC vs St. Louis CITY SC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the St. Louis CITY SC a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 48% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: St. Louis CITY SC 1523 (9th of 30), LAFC 1507 (10th). The St. Louis CITY SC are 15-10-9; the LAFC are 12-11-11. The St. Louis CITY SC have won 1 of their last 5; the LAFC 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the St. Louis CITY SC won 1, the LAFC 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
LAFC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Seattle Sounders FC | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota United FC | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LA Galaxy | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York City FC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Austin FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
St. Louis CITY SC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Houston Dynamo FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego FC | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Portland Timbers | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Real Salt Lake | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota United FC | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAFC at St. Louis CITY SC | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| St. Louis CITY SC at LAFC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| LAFC at St. Louis CITY SC | 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| St. Louis CITY SC at LAFC | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| St. Louis CITY SC at LAFC | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| LAFC at St. Louis CITY SC | 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
LAFC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
St. Louis CITY SC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- LAFC12-11-11 6th
- LAFC rating1507 10th of 30, 34 games
- St. Louis CITY SC15-10-9 3rd
- St. Louis CITY SC rating1523 9th of 30, 34 games
More MLS games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
LAFC 12-11-11
Major League Soccer · 6th
No stances yet today on $LAFC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the LAFC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
St. Louis CITY SC 15-10-9
Major League Soccer · 3rd
No stances yet today on $STLOUIS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the St. Louis CITY SC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on LAFC at St. Louis CITY SC
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: St. Louis CITY SC 48% to win, draw 26%. Projected score St. Louis CITY SC 1.8, LAFC 1.3; spread St. Louis CITY SC −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 39%, Polymarket 38% for St. Louis CITY SC. LAFC at St. Louis CITY SC, Mon, Nov 23, 8:00 PM ET.