Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire FC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Charlotte FC at Chicago Fire FC: Bandwagon's model makes Chicago Fire FC a 45% favorite (Chicago Fire FC −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 62%.
Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire FC model odds and win probability
Axle gives Chicago Fire FC a 45% chance to win, with a 27% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every MLS marketEach bar is the chance that Chicago Fire FC win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 45%.
The largest gap is 17 points: Kalshi has Chicago Fire FC at 62%, Axle at 45%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Chicago Fire FC
All MLS ratings| CLT | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1541 6th of 30 | 1531 8th of 30 |
| Record | 15-10-9 | 16-11-7 |
| Last 5 games | 2-1-2 | 2-2-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | CHI win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:05 AM ET | 45% | — |
Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire FC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Chicago Fire FC at 62%, Polymarket at 62%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 45%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CLT | Draw | CHI | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 19% | 19% | 62% | ||
| Polymarket | 18% | 20% | 62% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 28% | 27% | 45% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Chicago Fire FC a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 45% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Chicago Fire FC 1531 (8th of 30), Charlotte FC 1541 (6th). The Chicago Fire FC are 16-11-7; the Charlotte FC are 15-10-9. The Chicago Fire FC have won 2 of their last 5; the Charlotte FC 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Chicago Fire FC won 4, the Charlotte FC 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Charlotte FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Inter Miami CF | T 3–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando City SC | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs CF Montréal | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Portland Timbers | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia Union | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Chicago Fire FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Columbus Crew | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Rapids | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando City SC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta United FC | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New England Revolution | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire FC at Charlotte FC | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Charlotte FC at Chicago Fire FC | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Charlotte FC at Chicago Fire FC | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Fire FC at Charlotte FC | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Fire FC at Charlotte FC | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Charlotte FC at Chicago Fire FC | 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Charlotte FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Chicago Fire FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Charlotte FC15-10-9 5th
- Charlotte FC rating1541 6th of 30, 34 games
- Chicago Fire FC16-11-7 4th
- Chicago Fire FC rating1531 8th of 30, 34 games
More MLS games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Charlotte FC 15-10-9
Major League Soccer · 5th
No stances yet today on $CHARLOTTE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Charlotte FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Chicago Fire FC 16-11-7
Major League Soccer · 4th
No stances yet today on $CHICAGO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Chicago Fire FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Charlotte FC at Chicago Fire FC
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Chicago Fire FC 45% to win, draw 27%. Projected score Chicago Fire FC 1.9, Charlotte FC 1.6; spread Chicago Fire FC −0.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 62%, Polymarket 62% for Chicago Fire FC. Charlotte FC at Chicago Fire FC, Sun, Nov 22, 6:30 PM ET.