Utah Utes vs Arizona Wildcats prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Utah at Arizona: Bandwagon's model makes Utah a 63% favorite (Utah −5); Kalshi prices them at 57%.
Utah Utes vs Arizona Wildcats model odds and win probability
Axle gives Utah a 63% chance to win, by about 5 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Utah win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 63%.
The largest gap is 6 points: Axle has Utah at 63%, Kalshi at 57%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Utah
All CFB ratings| UTAH | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1787 5th of 138 | 1660 22nd of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W9 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ARIZ win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 37% | −3 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:14 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:16 PM ET | 40% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 44% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 43% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 44% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 47% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 49% | — |
Utah vs Arizona odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Utes at 57%, Polymarket at 57%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 63%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | UTAH | ARIZ | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 57% | 43% | ||
| Polymarket | 57% | 43% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 63% | 37% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Utah Utes vs Arizona Wildcats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Utes a 5-point favorite, with a 63% chance to win. The model total is 53. Ratings: Wildcats 1660 (22nd of 138), Utes 1787 (5th). The Wildcats have won 4 of their last 5; the Utes 5 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Wildcats won 2, the Utes 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Utah Utes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs BYU Cougars | W 28–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cincinnati Bearcats | W 49–25 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Cougars | W 21–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Buffaloes | W 27–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas Jayhawks | W 41–24 | – | – | matchup |
Arizona Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs TCU Horned Frogs | W 29–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Tech Red Raiders | L 26–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iowa State Cyclones | W 39–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at West Virginia Mountaineers | W 52–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cincinnati Bearcats | W 34–7 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Wildcats at Utah Utes | 23–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| Utah Utes at Arizona Wildcats | 18–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| Arizona Wildcats at Utah Utes | 20–45 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Utah Utes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Arizona Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Utes– 1st · W9
- Utes rating1787 5th of 138, 8 games
- Wildcats– 5th · W1
- Wildcats rating1660 22nd of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W9
No stances yet today on $UTAH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Utah Utes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $ARIZ: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arizona Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Utah Utes at Arizona Wildcats
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Utah 63% to win. Projected score Utah 29, Arizona 24; spread Utah −5, total 53. Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 57% for Utah. Utah Utes at Arizona Wildcats, Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET.