Texas A&M Aggies vs Oklahoma Sooners prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Texas A&M at Oklahoma: Bandwagon's model makes Oklahoma a 69% favorite (Oklahoma −8); Kalshi prices them at 63%.
Texas A&M Aggies vs Oklahoma Sooners model odds and win probability
Axle gives Oklahoma a 69% chance to win, by about 8 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Oklahoma win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 69%.
The largest gap is 8 points: Axle has Oklahoma at 69%, Polymarket at 61%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Oklahoma
All CFB ratings| TA&M | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1543 54th of 138 | 1603 30th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | OU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 69% | +6 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:29 PM ET | 63% | +3 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 60% | — |
Texas A&M vs Oklahoma odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Sooners at 63%, Polymarket at 61% (2 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 69%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TA&M | OU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 37% | 63% | ||
| Polymarket | 39% | 61% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 31% | 69% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Texas A&M Aggies vs Oklahoma Sooners prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Sooners a 8-point favorite at home, with a 69% chance to win. The model total is 47. Ratings: Sooners 1603 (30th of 138), Aggies 1543 (54th). The Sooners have won 3 of their last 5; the Aggies 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Texas A&M Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at South Carolina Gamecocks | L 9–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Alabama Crimson Tide | L 20–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Missouri Tigers | L 6–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arkansas Razorbacks | W 34–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LSU Tigers | L 6–35 | – | – | matchup |
Oklahoma Sooners
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Florida Gators | W 23–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Carolina Gamecocks | L 25–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Mississippi State Bulldogs | W 23–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kentucky Wildcats | L 13–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas Longhorns | W 27–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Texas A&M Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Oklahoma Sooners: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Aggies– 14th · L2
- Aggies rating1543 54th of 138, 8 games
- Sooners– 10th · W1
- Sooners rating1603 30th of 138, 9 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 14th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $TAM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas A&M Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $OU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oklahoma Sooners bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Sooners
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Oklahoma 69% to win. Projected score Oklahoma 27, Texas A&M 20; spread Oklahoma −8, total 47. Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 61% for Oklahoma. Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Sooners, Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 PM ET.