South Florida Bulls vs East Carolina Pirates prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerSouth Florida 56%
- Projected scoreSouth Florida 25, East Carolina 22
- Model spreadSouth Florida −2.5 total 47
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
South Florida Bulls or East Carolina Pirates: the bandwagon
Axle 56–44Market 45–55
South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
South Florida Bulls vs East Carolina Pirates live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
South Florida Bulls vs East Carolina Pirates team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | USF– | ECU– |
| Average win probability | USF– | ECU– |
| Longest scoring run | USF– | ECU– |
| Time leading | USF– | ECU– |
South Florida Bulls vs East Carolina Pirates model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ECU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:26 PM ET | 44% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 42% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 44% | — |
- Ratings
- ECU 1491 · USF 1583
- Home spread
- +2.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
South Florida vs East Carolina odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Bulls at 45%, Polymarket at 44% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 56%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | USF | ECU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 45% | 55% | ||
| Polymarket | 44% | 56% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 56% | 44% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
South Florida Bulls vs East Carolina Pirates prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulls a 2.5-point favorite, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 47. Ratings: Pirates 1491 (72nd of 138), Bulls 1583 (38th). The Pirates have won 3 of their last 5; the Bulls 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Pirates won 1, the Bulls 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
South Florida Bulls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UAB Blazers | W 30–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kent State Golden Flashes | W 29–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTSA Roadrunners | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Temple Owls | L 13–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bowling Green Falcons | W 14–6 | – | – | matchup |
East Carolina Pirates
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Temple Owls | W 17–9 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Memphis Tigers | L 34–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UAB Blazers | L 17–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rice Owls | W 28–12 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Old Dominion Monarchs | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina Pirates at South Florida Bulls | 48–28 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
South Florida Bulls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
East Carolina Pirates: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulls– 4th · W2
- Bulls rating1583 38th of 138, 7 games
- Pirates– 8th · W1
- Pirates rating1491 72nd of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $USF: the share of the crowd ▲ on the South Florida Bulls bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $ECU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the East Carolina Pirates bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates
Sign in to post a take on $USFECU261107: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: South Florida 56% to win. Projected score South Florida 25, East Carolina 22; spread South Florida −2.5, total 47. Kalshi 45%, Polymarket 44% for South Florida. South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates, Fri, Nov 6, 7:30 PM ET.