SMU Mustangs vs Stanford Cardinal prediction, odds and picks, November 27, 2026
SMU at Stanford: Bandwagon's model makes SMU an 80% favorite (SMU −13.5).
SMU Mustangs vs Stanford Cardinal odds and win probability
Axle gives SMU a 80% chance to win, by about 13 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has SMU
All CFB ratings| SMU | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1663 21st of 138 | 1415 99th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | STAN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 20% | — |
SMU Mustangs vs Stanford Cardinal prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mustangs a 13.5-point favorite, with a 80% chance to win. The model total is 57. Ratings: Cardinal 1415 (99th of 138), Mustangs 1663 (21st). The Cardinal have won 2 of their last 5; the Mustangs 4 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Cardinal won 0, the Mustangs 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
SMU Mustangs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Virginia Tech Hokies | W 51–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Syracuse Orange | L 27–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs California Golden Bears | W 59–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Virginia Cavaliers | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston College Eagles | W 25–16 | – | – | matchup |
Stanford Cardinal
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Louisville Cardinals | L 24–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs NC State Wolfpack | W 31–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 7–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wake Forest Demon Deacons | L 3–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | W 34–27 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford Cardinal at SMU Mustangs | 10–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| SMU Mustangs at Stanford Cardinal | 40–10 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
SMU Mustangs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Stanford Cardinal: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mustangs– 3rd · W1
- Mustangs rating1663 21st of 138, 8 games
- Cardinal– 11th · L1
- Cardinal rating1415 99th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SMU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SMU Mustangs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 11th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $STAN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Stanford Cardinal bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on SMU Mustangs at Stanford Cardinal
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.