Purdue Boilermakers vs Iowa Hawkeyes prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Purdue at Iowa: Bandwagon's model makes Iowa a 95% favorite (Iowa −28); Kalshi prices them at 88%.
Purdue Boilermakers vs Iowa Hawkeyes model odds and win probability
Axle gives Iowa a 95% chance to win, by about 28 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Iowa win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 95%.
The largest gap is 7 points: Axle has Iowa at 95%, Kalshi at 88%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Iowa
All CFB ratings| PUR | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1362 115th of 138 | 1714 10th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | W2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | IOWA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:52 PM ET | 95% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 94% | +2 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 92% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 91% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 90% | — |
Purdue vs Iowa odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Hawkeyes at 88%, Polymarket at 88%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 95%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PUR | IOWA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 12% | 88% | ||
| Polymarket | 12% | 88% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 5% | 95% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Purdue Boilermakers vs Iowa Hawkeyes prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hawkeyes a 28-point favorite at home, with a 95% chance to win. The model total is 51. Ratings: Hawkeyes 1714 (10th of 138), Boilermakers 1362 (115th). The Hawkeyes have won 3 of their last 5; the Boilermakers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Hawkeyes won 2, the Boilermakers 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Purdue Boilermakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Maryland Terrapins | L 29–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Penn State Nittany Lions | L 17–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Huskies | L 26–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Golden Gophers | W 41–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Illinois Fighting Illini | W 24–17 | – | – | matchup |
Iowa Hawkeyes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Northwestern Wildcats | W 24–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wisconsin Badgers | W 30–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Golden Gophers | L 10–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Huskies | W 41–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio State Buckeyes | L 14–31 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue Boilermakers at Iowa Hawkeyes | 14–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers | 24–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Purdue Boilermakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Iowa Hawkeyes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Boilermakers– 15th · L3
- Boilermakers rating1362 115th of 138, 8 games
- Hawkeyes– 3rd · W2
- Hawkeyes rating1714 10th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 15th · streak L3
No stances yet today on $PUR: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Purdue Boilermakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $IOWA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Iowa Hawkeyes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Purdue Boilermakers at Iowa Hawkeyes
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Iowa 95% to win. Projected score Iowa 40, Purdue 11; spread Iowa −28, total 51. Kalshi 88%, Polymarket 88% for Iowa. Purdue Boilermakers at Iowa Hawkeyes, Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET.