Penn State Nittany Lions vs Maryland Terrapins prediction, odds and picks, November 28, 2026
Penn State at Maryland: Bandwagon's model makes Penn State a 79% favorite (Penn State −13).
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Maryland Terrapins odds and win probability
Axle gives Penn State a 79% chance to win, by about 13 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Penn State
All CFB ratings| PSU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1602 31st of 138 | 1361 116th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MD win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 21% | — |
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Maryland Terrapins prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Nittany Lions a 13-point favorite, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 53.5. Ratings: Terrapins 1361 (116th of 138), Nittany Lions 1602 (31st). The Terrapins have won 1 of their last 5; the Nittany Lions 2 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Terrapins won 0, the Nittany Lions 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Penn State Nittany Lions
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Washington Huskies | W 28–25 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Purdue Boilermakers | W 31–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | L 18–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs USC Trojans | L 23–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northwestern Wildcats | L 13–34 | – | – | matchup |
Maryland Terrapins
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Purdue Boilermakers | W 34–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Illinois Fighting Illini | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights | L 30–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ohio State Buckeyes | L 16–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nebraska Cornhuskers | L 23–48 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland Terrapins at Penn State Nittany Lions | 7–44 | – | – | matchup | |
| Penn State Nittany Lions at Maryland Terrapins | 51–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| Maryland Terrapins at Penn State Nittany Lions | 0–30 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Penn State Nittany Lions: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Maryland Terrapins: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Nittany Lions– 11th · W2
- Nittany Lions rating1602 31st of 138, 9 games
- Terrapins– 16th · W1
- Terrapins rating1361 116th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 11th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $PSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Penn State Nittany Lions bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 16th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MD: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Maryland Terrapins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Penn State Nittany Lions at Maryland Terrapins
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Penn State 79% to win. Projected score Penn State 33, Maryland 20; spread Penn State −13, total 53.5. Penn State Nittany Lions at Maryland Terrapins, Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 AM ET.