Still 0-0 with 14:20 left in the first quarter, and the model has Maryland at 24 percent. For now the numbers lean Illinois, and that is all the opening minutes have decided.
FBS · · SECU Stadium · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Maryland Terrapins: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreIllinois 20, Maryland 17 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerIllinois 76%
- Pregame Projected scoreIllinois 34, Maryland 22
- Model spreadIllinois −11.5 total 56
- Margin3 projected 11.5
- Total37 projected 56
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Illinois Fighting Illini or Maryland Terrapins: the bandwagon
Axle 76–24Market 56–44
FinalPregame: MD 24%Baseline: MD 41.2% (+16.9)Big swing: 38.8 ptsClutch window: 15:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 0 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| MD | 7 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 17 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to ILL−21.8 points for MD over the last 5:00
Big swing38.8 ptstoward ILL at 54:21 of game time
Clutch window15:00within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineMD 41.2%game average, +16.9 points from the pregame 24.2%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Maryland Terrapins live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | ILL407 | MD288 |
| First downs | ILL20 | MD17 |
| 3rd down | ILL4/11 | MD6/14 |
| 4th down | ILL0/0 | MD1/1 |
| Turnovers | ILL1 | MD2 |
| Penalties-yards | ILL3-15 | MD1-5 |
| Time of possession | ILL29:46 | MD30:14 |
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Maryland Terrapins team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ILL20 | MD17 |
| Average win probability | ILL59% | MD41% |
| Longest scoring run | ILL+14 | MD+7 |
| Time leading | ILL4:34 | MD34:08 |
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Maryland Terrapins model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET
Fighting Illini76%
Win chanceTerrapins24%
SpreadILL −11.5closing model spread
Total56
Moneyline−315away / +315homeaway / home
Line movementMD win chance, 15 stored lines
−3 pts for MD between Oct 28 and Oct 31
32%19%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | MD win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 24% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 26% | −1 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 27% | — |
- Ratings
- MD 1340 · ILL 1556
- Home spread
- +11.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET · 2026-10-31 19:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Illinois Fighting Illini 20, Maryland Terrapins 17. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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Fighting IlliniTerrapins
Neutrals only–
Fighting IlliniTerrapins
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Terrapins–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Illinois vs Maryland odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Fighting Illini at 55% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 57% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 76% when last read, ; the two venues were 2 points apart at those reads.
| Source | ILL | MD | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 55% | 45% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 57% | 43% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 76% | 24% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, MD: +21Polymarket minus model, MD: +18
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Maryland Terrapins prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Fighting Illini a 11.5-point favorite, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 56. Ratings: Terrapins 1331 (124th of 138), Fighting Illini 1565 (44th). The Terrapins have won 0 of their last 5; the Fighting Illini 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Terrapins won 0, the Fighting Illini 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Maryland Terrapins | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oregon Ducks | W 21–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan State Spartans | W 38–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Purdue Boilermakers | L 17–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ohio State Buckeyes | L 19–42 | – | – | matchup |
Maryland Terrapins
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Illinois Fighting Illini | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights | L 30–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ohio State Buckeyes | L 16–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nebraska Cornhuskers | L 23–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UCLA Bruins | L 3–54 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland Terrapins at Illinois Fighting Illini | 6–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins | 27–24 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Illinois Fighting Illini: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Maryland Terrapins: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Fighting Illini– 7th · W3
- Fighting Illini rating1565 44th of 138, 7 games
- Terrapins– 17th · L6
- Terrapins rating1331 124th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak W3
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ILL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ILL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ILL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ILL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Illinois Fighting Illini bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 17th · streak L6
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MD
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MD
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MD
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MD: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Maryland Terrapins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins
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Final: Illinois 20, Maryland 17. Bandwagon's model had the Illinois at 76% and projected Illinois 34, Maryland 22; spread Illinois −11.5, total 56. Last read: Kalshi 55%, Polymarket 57% for Illinois.