Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Sam Houston Bearkats prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
- Projected winnerMiddle Tennessee 61%
- Projected scoreMiddle Tennessee 27, Sam Houston 23
- Model spreadMiddle Tennessee −4.5 total 50
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders or Sam Houston Bearkats: the bandwagon
Axle 61–39Market –
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Sam Houston Bearkats win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Sam Houston Bearkats live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Sam Houston Bearkats team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MTSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTSU– | SHSU– |
| Average win probability | MTSU– | SHSU– |
| Longest scoring run | MTSU– | SHSU– |
| Time leading | MTSU– | SHSU– |
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Sam Houston Bearkats odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SHSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | — |
- Ratings
- SHSU 1214 · MTSU 1333
- Home spread
- +4.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Sam Houston Bearkats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Blue Raiders a 4.5-point favorite, with a 61% chance to win. The model total is 50. Ratings: Bearkats 1214 (137th of 138), Blue Raiders 1333 (123rd). The Bearkats have won 0 of their last 5; the Blue Raiders 2 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bearkats won 1, the Blue Raiders 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | L 28–44 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida International Panthers | W 26–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Delaware Blue Hens | W 33–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas Jayhawks | L 0–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Jacksonville State Gamecocks | L 13–23 | – | – | matchup |
Sam Houston Bearkats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Missouri State Bears | L 3–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico State Aggies | L 24–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | L 3–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Liberty Flames | L 3–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Tech Red Raiders | L 14–49 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston Bearkats at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 17–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Sam Houston Bearkats | 20–23 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Sam Houston Bearkats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Blue Raiders– 4th · L1
- Blue Raiders rating1333 123rd of 138, 7 games
- Bearkats– 10th · L5
- Bearkats rating1214 137th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MTSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak L5
No stances yet today on $SHSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sam Houston Bearkats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Sam Houston Bearkats
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Model: Middle Tennessee 61% to win. Projected score Middle Tennessee 27, Sam Houston 23; spread Middle Tennessee −4.5, total 50. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Sam Houston Bearkats, Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM ET.