Maryland Terrapins vs USC Trojans prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Maryland at USC: Bandwagon's model makes USC a 93% favorite (USC −26); Kalshi prices them at 82%.
Maryland Terrapins vs USC Trojans model odds and win probability
Axle gives USC a 93% chance to win, by about 26 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that USC win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 93%.
The largest gap is 11 points: Axle has USC at 93%, Kalshi at 82%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has USC
All CFB ratings| MD | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1361 116th of 138 | 1683 17th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | USC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 93% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 94% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 93% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 94% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 93% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 94% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 93% | −1 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:34 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 94% | −1 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 95% | — |
Maryland vs USC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Trojans at 82%, Polymarket at 85% (3 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 93%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MD | USC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 18% | 82% | ||
| Polymarket | 15% | 85% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 7% | 93% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Maryland Terrapins vs USC Trojans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Trojans a 26-point favorite at home, with a 93% chance to win. The model total is 55.5. Ratings: Trojans 1683 (17th of 138), Terrapins 1361 (116th). The Trojans have won 3 of their last 5; the Terrapins 1 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Trojans won 0, the Terrapins 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Maryland Terrapins
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Purdue Boilermakers | W 34–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Illinois Fighting Illini | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights | L 30–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ohio State Buckeyes | L 16–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nebraska Cornhuskers | L 23–48 | – | – | matchup |
USC Trojans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Ohio State Buckeyes | W 30–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wisconsin Badgers | L 7–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Penn State Nittany Lions | W 31–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Huskies | W 25–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oregon Ducks | L 27–41 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC Trojans at Maryland Terrapins | 28–29 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Maryland Terrapins: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
USC Trojans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Terrapins– 16th · W1
- Terrapins rating1361 116th of 138, 8 games
- Trojans– 4th · W1
- Trojans rating1683 17th of 138, 9 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 16th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MD: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Maryland Terrapins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $USC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the USC Trojans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Maryland Terrapins at USC Trojans
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: USC 93% to win. Projected score USC 41, Maryland 15; spread USC −26, total 55.5. Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 85% for USC. Maryland Terrapins at USC Trojans, Sat, Nov 21, 6:15 PM ET.