Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Iowa at Illinois: Bandwagon's model makes Iowa a 62% favorite (Iowa −4.5); Kalshi prices them at 56%.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini model odds and win probability
Axle gives Iowa a 62% chance to win, by about 5 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Iowa win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 62%.
The largest gap is 9 points: Polymarket has Iowa at 65%, Kalshi at 56%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Iowa
All CFB ratings| IOWA | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1714 10th of 138 | 1590 36th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W2 | W4 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ILL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:52 PM ET | 38% | −5 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:39 PM ET | 43% | +4 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | — |
Iowa vs Illinois odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Hawkeyes at 56%, Polymarket at 65% (9 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 62%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | IOWA | ILL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 56% | 44% | ||
| Polymarket | 65% | 35% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 62% | 38% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hawkeyes a 4.5-point favorite, with a 62% chance to win. The model total is 48. Ratings: Fighting Illini 1590 (36th of 138), Hawkeyes 1714 (10th). The Fighting Illini have won 4 of their last 5; the Hawkeyes 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Fighting Illini won 1, the Hawkeyes 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Iowa Hawkeyes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Northwestern Wildcats | W 24–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wisconsin Badgers | W 30–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Golden Gophers | L 10–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Huskies | W 41–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio State Buckeyes | L 14–31 | – | – | matchup |
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | W 24–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Maryland Terrapins | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oregon Ducks | W 21–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan State Spartans | W 38–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Purdue Boilermakers | L 17–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois Fighting Illini at Iowa Hawkeyes | 13–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| Iowa Hawkeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini | 6–9 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Iowa Hawkeyes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Illinois Fighting Illini: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hawkeyes– 3rd · W2
- Hawkeyes rating1714 10th of 138, 8 games
- Fighting Illini– 8th · W4
- Fighting Illini rating1590 36th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $IOWA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Iowa Hawkeyes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak W4
No stances yet today on $ILL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Illinois Fighting Illini bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Iowa Hawkeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Iowa 62% to win. Projected score Iowa 26, Illinois 22; spread Iowa −4.5, total 48. Kalshi 56%, Polymarket 65% for Iowa. Iowa Hawkeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini, Sat, Nov 21, 2:30 PM ET.